July 25, 2018 - Women Drive Dems To 12-Pt. Lead In U.S. House Races, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Split On Confirming Kavanaugh Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With almost 2-1 backing from women, Democrats take a 51 - 39 percent lead in hypothetical races for the U.S. House of Representatives this year, according to a Quinnipiac University National Poll released today.

Women back Democratic candidates 57 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University National Poll finds. Men are divided with 46 percent going Republican and 44 percent for Democrats. White voters are divided with 46 percent for Democrats and 45 percent for Republicans. Black voters go Democratic 78 - 16 percent and Hispanic voters back Democrats 66 - 23 percent.

The key block of independent voters backs Democratic candidates 50 - 33 percent.

American voters disapprove 66 - 27 percent of the job Republicans in Congress are doing and disapprove of Democrats in Congress 63 - 30 percent.

Voters are divided on President Donald Trump's nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to be a justice of the U.S. Supreme Court as 40 percent say the U.S. Senate should confirm the nomination and 41 percent say the Senate should not confirm the nomination.

In a similar question with a slight difference in wording, an April 5, 2017 Quinnipiac University Poll found American voters supported 50 - 35 percent the confirmation of Supreme Court nominee Neil Gorsuch.

"Although the Mid-term elections are more than three months away, Democrats, who are hoping to retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives, will be cheered by their double- digit lead on the so-called generic ballot," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"At this point, American voters are split down the middle on Judge Brett Kavanaugh, President Donald Trump's U.S. Supreme Court pick."

"With this kind of division it is likely Judge Kavanaugh's Senate confirmation hearings will be crucial if not determinative," Brown added.

Kavanaugh's nomination shows wide gender and racial gaps among American voters:
  • Men support confirmation 50 - 35 percent, with women opposed 46 - 32 percent;
  • White voters support confirmation 46 - 38 percent. Black voters are opposed 61 - 15 percent and Hispanic voters are divided 37 - 38 percent. Kavanaugh will make the Supreme Court too conservative, voters say 45 - 38 percent.
But voters say 62 - 27 percent that it is not likely that the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision will be overturned within the next few years.

Overturning Roe v. Wade would be a "bad thing," voters say 66 - 23 percent. By a narrow 48 - 39 percent Republicans say overturning Roe v. Wade would be a "good thing," the only listed party, gender, education, age or racial group which says that.

American voter opinions on abortion are:
  • 26 percent say abortion should be legal in all cases;
  • 38 percent say abortion should be legal in most cases;
  • 19 percent say abortion should be illegal in most cases;
  • 10 percent say abortion should be illegal in all cases.
President Trump and the Media

American voters disapprove 56 - 36 percent of the way the media covers President Trump, and disapprove 65 - 32 percent of the way Trump talks about the media.

Voters trust the media more than Trump 54 - 34 percent to tell the truth about important issues. Republicans believe Trump more 75 - 16 percent, the only listed group to side with the president. White voters with no college degree and white men are divided.

The media is an important part of democracy, 71 percent of voters say, while 21 percent say the media is the enemy of the people. This is the strongest support for the media since the Quinnipiac University National Poll first asked this question in April.

From July 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,177 voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic candidate or more toward the Republican candidate?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Democratic candidate 51%     8%    93%    50%    44%    57%    53%    39%
Republican candidate 39     91      3     33     46     32     40     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                10      1      4     17     10     10      6     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Democratic candidate 57%    43%    52%    54%    38%    53%    46%    78%    66%
Republican candidate 31     41     43     40     52     39     45     16     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                11     16      5      6      9      8      9      7     11
 
TREND: If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were being held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your congressional district? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward the Democratic candidate or more toward the Republican candidate?
                                     SMONE
                     Dem     Rep     ELSE    DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         51      39       -      10
Jul 02, 2018         50      41       1       8
 
 
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              27%    56%     5%    26%    32%    22%    26%    35%
Disapprove           66     36     92     64     62     69     69     56
DK/NA                 8      8      3     10      6      9      6      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              29%    31%    25%    25%    34%    27%    30%    10%    17%
Disapprove           66     58     70     67     59     65     62     87     69
DK/NA                 5     12      5      9      6      8      7      3     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republicans in Congress are handling their job?
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         27      66       8
Jun 20, 2018         28      66       7
Apr 25, 2018         22      69       8
Mar 21, 2018         25      68       7
Feb 21, 2018         22      72       6
Jan 24, 2018         24      70       6
Jan 11, 2018         21      72       7
Dec 13, 2017         20      72       8
Nov 14, 2017         15      79       6
Oct 11, 2017         17      77       6
See additional trend information at top of page


4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              30%    11%    58%    24%    26%    34%    32%    27%
Disapprove           63     86     37     67     69     57     61     67
DK/NA                 7      3      6      9      5      9      7      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              35%    24%    31%    33%    25%    34%    30%    37%    31%
Disapprove           60     65     63     60     70     59     64     56     57
DK/NA                 5     11      6      7      5      7      6      7     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democrats in Congress are handling their job?
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         30      63       7
Jun 20, 2018         26      66       8
Apr 25, 2018         26      66       8
Mar 21, 2018         28      63       9
Feb 21, 2018         28      66       6
Jan 24, 2018         30      63       7
Jan 11, 2018         31      59      11
Dec 13, 2017         30      61       8
Nov 14, 2017         29      63       8
Oct 11, 2017         28      65       8
See additional trend information at top of page


10. If the Democratic party wins control of the House of Representatives in 2018, would you like to see them begin the process to impeach President Trump, or not?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Impeach          39%     7%    65%    42%    30%    47%    38%    34%
No                   55     90     27     53     65     46     54     63
DK/NA                 6      3      8      6      5      7      7      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Impeach          48%    37%    38%    37%    27%    44%    36%    60%    45%
No                   48     56     56     56     69     50     59     33     46
DK/NA                 4      6      6      7      4      7      5      7      9
 
TREND: If the Democratic party wins control of the House of Representatives in 2018, would you like to see them begin the process to impeach President Trump, or not?
                     Yes/
                     Impeach No      DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         39      55       6
Jul 02, 2018         38      56       6
Jun 08, 2018         36      57       8
Apr 26, 2018         38      55       7
Jan 10, 2018         45      51       5
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the news media has covered President Trump?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              36%    10%    64%    36%    33%    40%    37%    35%
Disapprove           56     87     29     54     61     52     55     61
DK/NA                 7      3      7     10      6      9      7      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              28%    29%    41%    46%    30%    42%    36%    49%    38%
Disapprove           63     60     57     47     66     51     58     43     49
DK/NA                 9     11      3      7      4      7      6      8     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the news media has covered President Trump?
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         36      56       7
Mar 21, 2018         35      59       6
Nov 14, 2017         38      58       3
Oct 12, 2017         35      60       5
Aug 23, 2017         40      55       5
Aug 16, 2017         37      58       5
May 25, 2017         39      57       4
May 10, 2017         37      58       5
Mar 07, 2017         41      53       6
Feb 22, 2017         45      50       4
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump talks about the media?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              32%    67%     6%    28%    38%    26%    27%    43%
Disapprove           65     29     92     68     59     70     69     54
DK/NA                 3      4      2      3      3      4      4      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              25%    30%    34%    34%    41%    30%    35%     8%    23%
Disapprove           73     66     62     62     56     66     61     90     72
DK/NA                 2      3      4      3      3      4      3      2      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way President Trump talks about the media?
                     App     Dis     DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         32      65       3
Mar 21, 2018         38      58       4
Nov 14, 2017         34      64       2
Oct 12, 2017         39      59       2
Aug 23, 2017         35      62       3
Aug 16, 2017         38      59       3
May 25, 2017         35      62       3
May 10, 2017         31      65       3
Mar 07, 2017         37      60       3
Feb 22, 2017         35      61       4
 
 
17. Who do you trust more to tell you the truth about important issues: President Trump or the news media?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                34%    75%     5%    29%    39%    30%    32%    44%
News media           54     16     86     58     48     60     57     45
DK/NA                12      9      9     13     14     10     11     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Trump                24%    37%    37%    37%    41%    35%    38%    12%    30%
News media           63     47     55     53     45     56     51     76     54
DK/NA                13     16      8     10     14      9     11     12     16
 
TREND: Who do you trust more to tell you the truth about important issues: President Trump or the news media?
                             News
                     Trump   Media   DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         34      54      12
Jun 20, 2018         36      53      11
Apr 26, 2018         37      53      10
Nov 14, 2017         34      54      12
Oct 12, 2017         37      52      11
Aug 23, 2017         36      54      10
Aug 16, 2017         37      55       9
May 25, 2017         34      53      13
May 10, 2017         31      57      12
Mar 07, 2017         37      53      10
See additional trend information at top of page


18. Which comes closer to your point of view: the news media is the enemy of the people, or the news media is an important part of democracy?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Enemy of the people  21%    45%     4%    18%    24%    18%    18%    27%
Part of democracy    71     44     94     74     67     75     76     63
NEITHER(VOL)          3      6      -      4      3      3      3      4
DK/NA                 4      6      2      5      5      3      3      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Enemy of the people  20%    22%    21%    20%    26%    19%    23%     6%    26%
Part of democracy    74     68     74     70     65     73     70     88     67
NEITHER(VOL)          4      3      3      3      3      4      3      1      4
DK/NA                 3      6      3      6      6      3      4      5      4
 
TREND: Which comes closer to your point of view: the news media is the enemy of the people, or the news media is an important part of democracy?
                             Impt
                     Enemy   Part    NEITHER  DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         21      71       3        4
Jun 20, 2018         23      65       6        6
Apr 26, 2018         22      66       4        8
 
 
29. As you may know, President Trump has nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, or not?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Confirm          40%    80%    11%    36%    50%    32%    43%    49%
No                   41      9     70     42     35     46     42     33
DK/NA                18     11     19     22     15     21     16     18
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Confirm          31%    40%    43%    45%    55%    37%    46%    15%    37%
No                   54     33     43     36     31     43     38     61     38
DK/NA                15     27     14     18     14     19     17     24     25
 
 
30. Do you think that Brett Kavanaugh would make the Supreme Court too conservative, or not?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Too conservative 45%    12%    72%    48%    41%    48%    49%    38%
No                   38     75     12     35     45     33     38     45
DK/NA                17     13     17     17     14     19     12     17
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Too conservative 55%    35%    46%    45%    37%    49%    44%    64%    38%
No                   31     42     40     41     48     36     42     15     37
DK/NA                15     22     14     14     15     15     15     21     25
 
 
40. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Legal all cases      26%     8%    42%    26%    22%    29%    29%    20%
Legal most cases     38     24     44     45     40     37     40     37
Illegal most cases   19     41      6     15     21     17     19     25
Illegal all cases    10     18      4      8     10     10      7     12
DK/NA                 7      9      4      6      7      7      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Legal all cases      30%    25%    27%    24%    18%    30%    25%    33%    27%
Legal most cases     45     36     39     34     42     36     39     40     40
Illegal most cases   15     20     20     19     24     20     22     11      8
Illegal all cases     6     14      9     13     10     10     10      8     20
DK/NA                 4      6      5     10      6      5      5      7      5
 
TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
                     LEGAL.......    ILLEGAL....
                     All     Most    Most    All     DK/NA
 
Jul 25, 2018         26      38      19      10       7
Dec 13, 2017         21      39      22      12       5
Feb 08, 2017         27      35      23      11       4
Jan 27, 2017         28      36      22       9       5
Jan 12, 2017         28      34      21      11       6
Nov 23, 2016         26      38      22      10       4
Sep 28, 2015         22      35      28      12       3
Aug 31, 2015         23      33      26      14       4
Nov 25, 2014         23      33      24      12       8
Oct 04, 2013         20      36      23      14       7
See additional trend information at top of page


41. Do you think it's likely that the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to choose an abortion will be overturned within the next few years, or don't you think so?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Likely           27%    17%    44%    23%    23%    30%    25%    25%
No                   62     76     47     65     68     57     64     66
DK/NA                10      7     10     13      8     12     11     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Likely           27%    24%    31%    27%    21%    29%    25%    40%    30%
No                   62     66     62     60     70     60     65     53     55
DK/NA                11     10      7     13      9     11     10      7     15
 
 
42. If the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision is overturned, do you think it would be a good thing or a bad thing?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Good thing           23%    48%     5%    20%    25%    21%    21%    29%
Bad thing            66     39     90     67     64     68     70     61
DK/NA                11     13      5     13     11     10     10     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Good thing           18%    27%    24%    23%    26%    24%    25%    12%    23%
Bad thing            75     60     67     64     63     67     65     81     59
DK/NA                 7     13      8     13     10      9     10      7     19