June 14, 2017 - Murphy Buries Guadagno 2-1 In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Christie, Trump Approval Ratings Drop To Historic Lows Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Five months before Election Day, Democrat Phil Murphy buries Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno 55 - 26 percent in the New Jersey governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The blue wave sweeps across the ballot as New Jersey voters say 57 - 29 percent that they want Democrats rather than Republicans to control the State Legislature, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds.

Lt. Gov. Guadagno leads 78 - 8 percent among Republicans and gets 38 percent of white men to Murphy's 39 percent. The Democrat leads among every other listed party, gender, education, age and racial group, including 46 - 26 percent among independent voters and 61 - 22 percent among women.

"Taxes" is the most important issue in their vote for governor, 28 percent of voters say, while 20 percent list health care; 15 percent cite the economy; 14 percent say education and 13 percent list ethics in government.

Only 23 percent of voters believe Guadagno's pledge that, if elected, she will lower property taxes or step down after one term as governor, but 68 percent don't believe her pledge.

Only 39 percent believe Murphy's pledge to increase education funding by imposing a millionaires' tax, with no tax hike on the middle class, while 52 percent don't believe his pledge.

"Once upon a time, New Jersey elections were peppy - looked on as a sign of where the nation was heading politically. This was a far from peppy primary and the first general election matchup between Democrat Phil Murphy and Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno doesn't look like this race will go down to the wire," said Maurice Carroll, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"But if New Jersey is a weather vane, the wind is blowing in the Democrats' direction."

"Hobbled by eight years in a little noticed job and her ties to a remarkably unpopular governor, Lt. Gov. Guadagno is little-known and little-liked," Carroll added. "Half the state doesn't know enough about her to judge her as a candidate.

"The last New Jersey governor from Goldman Sachs, Jon Corzine, failed to win a second term, but only one-third of voters hold Murphy's Wall Street career against him. Guadagno's experience as lieutenant governor seems to be hurting her more."

Murphy gets a 33 - 18 percent favorability rating from New Jersey voters, while 47 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him. Guadagno gets a negative 20 - 28 percent favorability, with 50 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs leaves 33 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of him, with 7 percent saying it has a positive impact and 56 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion.

Guadagno's service as Gov. Christopher Christie's Lieutenant Governor leaves 54 percent of voters with a negative impact on their opinion of her; 9 percent of voters with a positive impact and 35 percent who say it has no impact on their opinion of her. Gov. Christie, President Trump Approval Ratings

Christie makes history again as New Jersey voters disapprove 81 - 15 percent of the job he is doing, the worst approval rating for any governor in any state surveyed by Quinnipiac University in more than 20 years. Even Republicans disapprove 58 - 31 percent.

President Donald Trump also is at a historic low, as Garden State voters disapprove 66 - 28 percent of the job he is doing.

New Jersey voters approve 58 - 28 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing, compared to his all-time high approval of 58 - 31 percent January 31.

U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez gets a 44 - 35 percent approval rating compared to his 41 - 41 percent score in a May 3 Quinnipiac University poll.

But voters say 44 - 31 percent that Menendez does not deserve reelection next year. From June 7 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,103 New Jersey voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               55%     8%    88%    46%    47%    61%    51%    43%
Guadagno             26     78      3     26     31     22     31     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      -      4      4      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      2      3      2      2      2      4
DK/NA                14     11      6     22     15     13     14     15
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Murphy               56%    60%    55%    51%    39%    54%    47%    70%
Guadagno             15     24     30     34     38     30     34     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       7      -      3      1      2      2      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      1      4      2      3      1
DK/NA                20     14      9     13     17     12     14     12
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Phil Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            33%     8%    50%    31%    32%    35%    33%    25%
Unfavorable          18     36      7     21     23     13     21     22
Hvn't hrd enough     47     55     43     46     42     51     44     51
REFUSED               2      1      -      3      3      1      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Favorable            34%    38%    33%    32%    26%    32%    29%    43%
Unfavorable          11     13     21     21     26     17     21     10
Hvn't hrd enough     51     47     45     46     44     50     47     45
REFUSED               4      1      1      1      4      1      2      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            20%    48%     6%    20%    23%    17%    24%    24%
Unfavorable          28     12     40     25     26     30     35     22
Hvn't hrd enough     50     39     53     52     47     52     39     52
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      3      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Favorable             8%    16%    24%    28%    29%    21%    25%    11%
Unfavorable          23     26     32     30     26     31     29     28
Hvn't hrd enough     65     57     43     39     42     48     45     59
REFUSED               3      1      1      3      3      1      2      2
 
 
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              28%    79%     5%    31%    34%    24%    31%    43%
Disapprove           66     15     93     60     60     70     63     52
DK/NA                 6      7      3      9      6      6      6      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              19%    29%    31%    32%    43%    32%    37%    14%
Disapprove           74     62     65     63     52     63     58     79
DK/NA                 7      8      4      4      6      5      5      7
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              15%    31%     4%    16%    16%    14%    17%    14%
Disapprove           81     58     94     81     82     81     79     80
DK/NA                 4     12      2      3      3      6      4      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve               9%    13%    16%    19%    18%    14%    16%    11%
Disapprove           89     82     80     75     79     79     79     86
DK/NA                 1      5      4      6      3      6      5      3
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              26%    21%    26%    27%    24%    27%    22%    27%
Disapprove           54     63     51     54     59     49     56     51
DK/NA                20     15     23     19     17     23     22     22
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              34%    23%    23%    21%    23%    26%    25%    26%
Disapprove           42     57     62     56     60     47     53     57
DK/NA                24     20     15     23     17     26     22     17
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              58%    20%    81%    52%    49%    66%    58%    50%
Disapprove           28     63      9     30     36     20     31     35
DK/NA                15     17     10     18     15     14     11     15
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              53%    59%    60%    58%    44%    63%    54%    65%
Disapprove           23     29     28     31     43     25     33     17
DK/NA                24     12     12     11     13     13     13     18
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              44%    19%    59%    43%    38%    49%    42%    38%
Disapprove           35     55     21     39     41     30     39     41
DK/NA                21     26     20     18     21     21     18     21
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              36%    45%    49%    45%    34%    46%    40%    51%
Disapprove           33     33     36     40     49     32     40     27
DK/NA                31     22     14     16     17     22     20     22
 
 
9. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Deserves         31%    18%    39%    30%    30%    32%    31%    29%
No/Does not          44     57     35     48     51     39     44     48
DK/NA                25     24     26     22     19     30     25     23
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Yes/Deserves         23%    30%    34%    36%    28%    32%    30%    33%
No/Does not          39     48     46     45     53     40     46     42
DK/NA                38     22     20     18     19     28     24     25
 
 
10. Would you like to see the Democrats or the Republicans control the New Jersey state legislature?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Democrats            57%     7%    92%    47%    48%    65%    53%    46%
Republicans          29     85      3     31     36     24     34     42
DK/NA                14      9      5     22     16     12     13     12
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Democrats            61%    60%    56%    55%    42%    56%    50%    70%
Republicans          19     29     34     34     44     33     38     15
DK/NA                20     11     11     12     13     11     12     15
 
 
12. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, the budget, health care, or ethics in government?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Taxes                28%    46%    15%    36%    34%    23%    34%    31%
Economy              15     21     14     13     17     14     14     18
Education            14      5     18     14     11     17     15      7
The budget            8      7      6      9      9      7      9      7
Health care          20      8     31     13     14     25     14     19
Ethics in government 13     10     16     14     13     14     13     15
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      3      -      1      2      -      1      1
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Taxes                12%    29%    35%    36%    37%    29%    33%    21%
Economy              13     14     19     16     15     16     16     15
Education            28     18      8      6     10     13     11     19
The budget           10      7      7      7      9      7      8      6
Health care          26     16     20     17     12     20     16     26
Ethics in government 11     14     11     14     14     15     14     12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   -      1      1      1      2      1      1      -
DK/NA                 -      -      -      3      1      1      1      1
 
 
13. As you may know, Phil Murphy worked for Goldman Sachs for 23 years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Positive              7%    10%     6%     4%     7%     6%     6%     4%
Negative             33     27     35     33     37     30     36     30
No impact            56     58     55     59     53     59     57     61
DK/NA                 4      5      3      3      3      5      1      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Positive              9%    10%     4%     4%     6%     5%     5%     8%
Negative             29     27     39     37     36     31     33     33
No impact            56     62     54     54     56     60     58     53
DK/NA                 7      1      2      5      2      4      3      6
 
 
14. As you may know, Kim Guadagno has been Chris Christie's lieutenant governor for about eight years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Positive              9%    25%     2%     8%     9%     9%    11%    12%
Negative             54     25     73     50     51     56     53     44
No impact            35     47     24     42     37     33     35     42
DK/NA                 2      3      1      -      2      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Positive              5%     5%    10%    12%    13%    11%    12%     4%
Negative             62     61     54     44     46     51     49     65
No impact            31     33     35     41     40     37     38     29
DK/NA                 2      -      1      3      2      1      1      3
 
 
15. Do you believe Kim Guadagno's pledge that if she is elected governor she will lower property taxes or step down after one term, or don't you believe her pledge?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Believe              23%    46%    11%    25%    28%    19%    24%    28%
Don't believe        68     44     81     67     66     70     68     62
DK/NA                 9     10      8      8      6     11      8     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Believe              17%    20%    27%    27%    30%    23%    26%    20%
Don't believe        68     75     70     64     64     66     65     73
DK/NA                15      5      3      9      6     11      9      8
 
 
16. Do you believe Phil Murphy's pledge to increase education funding by imposing a millionaires' tax, with no tax increases on the middle class, or don't you believe his pledge?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Believe              39%    22%    53%    36%    38%    41%    41%    33%
Don't believe        52     67     42     54     56     49     53     59
DK/NA                 8     10      5     10      7     10      6      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Believe              37%    49%    38%    32%    36%    38%    37%    45%
Don't believe        50     46     56     59     59     53     56     45
DK/NA                13      5      5      8      5     10      7     10
 
 
20. There is a Republican health care plan to replace Obamacare, known as the American Health Care Act. Do you approve or disapprove of this Republican health care plan?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              19%    57%     3%    20%    24%    15%    25%    25%
Disapprove           69     23     92     67     66     72     63     57
DK/NA                12     21      5     14     11     13     12     18
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              11%    17%    22%    23%    31%    20%    25%     9%
Disapprove           81     74     66     58     56     64     60     85
DK/NA                 9      9     12     18     14     16     15      6