October 25, 2017 - Dem Has 20-Pt Likely Voter Lead In New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Huge Gender Gap As Women Back Murphy By 36 Points Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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A huge lead among women propels Democrat Phil Murphy to a 57 - 37 percent lead over Republican Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 58 - 33 percent Murphy lead over Guadagno, in a September 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In today's result, women back the Democrat 65 - 29 percent while men are divided with 49 percent for Murphy and 45 percent for Guadagno.

Murphy leads 92 - 4 percent among Democrats and 52 - 39 percent among independent voters. Republicans go to Guadagno 89 - 8 percent.

With 13 days until the election, 83 percent of likely voters who name a candidate say their mind is made up, while 14 percent say they might change their mind.

Murphy gets a 44 - 34 percent favorability rating among likely voters, compared to Guadagno's negative 33 - 41 percent favorability.

Taxes are the most important issue in deciding how they will vote in the governor's race, 36 percent of likely voters say, while 14 percent list the economy. Another 11 percent cite health care and 9 percent say education.

"Lt. Gov. Guadagno could not be in a worse situation. Phil Murphy leads her among most voter groups and the state's electorate gives her an unfavorable rating overall," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"What's more, politics is a team game. Guadagno's GOP teammates - President Donald Trump, with a 33 percent job approval rating, and Gov. Christopher Christie, with his 15 percent approval rating - are clearly pulling her down."

"The way Republicans occasionally win in blue states such as New Jersey is by attracting some soft Democrats and dominating among independent voters. But only 4 percent of Democrats say they will vote for Guadagno, compared to 8 percent of Republicans backing Murphy. And his double-digit lead among independent voters makes it difficult to find a realistic path to a Guadagno victory."

Guadagno's role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie is heavier baggage than Murphy's work at Goldman Sachs, New Jersey likely voters say.

For 51 percent of these voters, Guadagno's role as lieutenant governor to Gov. Christopher Christie has a negative impact on their opinion of her. Another 10 percent say it has a positive impact and 37 percent say it doesn't matter.

Murphy's 23 years at Goldman Sachs creates a negative impact on the opinion of 30 percent of likely voters. For 6 percent, it has a positive impact and 61 percent say it doesn't matter.

President Trump, Gov. Christie Approval Ratings

New Jersey likely voters disapprove 65 - 33 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 80 - 19 percent and white voters with no college degree are divided, as 47 percent approve and 52 percent disapprove. Every other party, gender, education and racial group disapproves by wide margins.

Gov. Christie's historic low approval ratings continue, a negative 15 - 80 percent today. Even Republican likely voters disapprove 57 - 37 percent.

Voters disapprove 49 - 31 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez is doing and say 59 - 19 percent that he does not deserve to be reelected next year.

New Jersey likely voters approve 61 - 32 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing.

From October 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,049 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.






1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Phil Murphy the Democrat and Kim Guadagno the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Phil Murphy the Democrat or Kim Guadagno the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Murphy               57%     8%    92%    52%    49%    65%    58%    44%
Guadagno             37     89      4     39     45     29     38     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      2      1      2      -      3
DK/NA                 5      1      4      6      5      5      4      3
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Murphy               46%    57%    52%    71%
Guadagno             51     38     44     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      1
DK/NA                 3      4      4      8
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.................
                                   CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot           Murphy        Guadagno
 
Made up              83%           82%           86%
Might change         14            14            13
DK/NA                 3             4             1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Phil Murphy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            44%     7%    71%    40%    41%    48%    47%    31%
Unfavorable          34     77      6     38     39     29     36     47
Hvn't hrd enough     20     15     22     18     19     20     15     20
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      1      3      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Favorable            37%    44%    40%    54%
Unfavorable          48     35     41     17
Hvn't hrd enough     14     19     17     26
REFUSED               1      2      2      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Kim Guadagno favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            33%    80%     8%    33%    41%    27%    34%    46%
Unfavorable          41      8     60     44     37     46     49     35
Hvn't hrd enough     23     11     30     19     20     26     15     17
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      2      2      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Favorable            44%    34%    39%    20%
Unfavorable          40     46     43     40
Hvn't hrd enough     14     18     16     38
REFUSED               2      2      2      2
 
 
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Chris Christie is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              15%    37%     2%    16%    19%    11%    17%    19%
Disapprove           80     57     96     78     77     83     79     77
DK/NA                 5      6      2      5      4      6      4      4
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              22%    14%    18%     9%
Disapprove           75     81     78     85
DK/NA                 3      5      4      6
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              61%    23%    90%    56%    52%    69%    58%    53%
Disapprove           32     72      4     33     40     24     36     40
DK/NA                 8      5      6     10      8      7      6      7
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              50%    62%    56%    74%
Disapprove           45     31     38     17
DK/NA                 6      7      6      9
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              31%    11%    45%    28%    31%    31%    30%    21%
Disapprove           49     81     27     53     54     44     54     61
DK/NA                20      8     28     19     15     25     17     17
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              25%    27%    26%    41%
Disapprove           63     52     57     33
DK/NA                13     21     17     26
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              33%    80%     3%    36%    39%    27%    33%    47%
Disapprove           65     19     96     60     58     70     64     52
DK/NA                 2      1      1      4      3      2      3      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Approve              44%    35%    39%    19%
Disapprove           54     63     59     80
DK/NA                 2      2      2      2
 
 
8. Do you feel that Robert Menendez deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Deserves         19%     8%    29%    16%    21%    18%    19%    16%
No/Does not          59     87     42     60     62     57     60     67
DK/NA                22      5     29     24     18     25     20     17
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Yes/Deserves         16%    19%    18%    23%
No/Does not          70     57     63     51
DK/NA                14     24     19     26
 
 
9. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Very satisfied        2%     2%     2%     2%     2%     1%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      28     35     25     27     32     24     26     30
Smwht dissatisfied   39     38     41     35     38     39     44     35
Very dissatisfied    31     25     30     35     27     34     30     33
DK/NA                 1      -      2      1      1      1      -      -
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Very satisfied        2%     1%     1%     2%
Smwht satisfied      31     24     28     31
Smwht dissatisfied   38     41     40     35
Very dissatisfied    29     33     31     30
DK/NA                 -      1      -      2
 
 
10. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, the budget, health care, race relations, the environment, gun policy, or ethics in government?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Taxes                36%    53%    26%    35%    39%    32%    33%    43%
Economy              14     17     11     16     18     11     15     14
Education             9      2     12     12      8     11     12      3
Budget                6      9      5      7      7      6      8      7
Health care          11      4     16      8      7     15      7     12
Race relations        3      -      3      4      2      3      2      1
Environment           3      -      5      3      3      3      6      2
Gun policy            5      3      9      1      4      6      3      5
Ethics in government  9     10     10      9     10      8     11      9
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      1      -      3      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 2      1      3      2      1      3      2      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Taxes                40%    36%    38%    29%
Economy              16     13     14     15
Education             7      9      8     11
Budget                8      8      8      3
Health care           6     11      9     14
Race relations        2      1      1      6
Environment           4      5      4      2
Gun policy            4      4      4      9
Ethics in government 12      9     10      8
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 1      3      2      2
 
 
11. As you may know, Phil Murphy worked for Goldman Sachs for 23 years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Phil Murphy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Positive              6%     7%     9%     3%     8%     5%     5%     4%
Negative             30     31     27     32     35     26     31     33
No impact            61     61     61     63     56     65     63     61
DK/NA                 3      2      3      2      1      4      1      3
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Positive              4%     5%     5%     9%
Negative             38     26     32     27
No impact            57     66     62     59
DK/NA                 -      3      2      5
 
 
12. As you may know, Kim Guadagno has been Chris Christie's lieutenant governor for about eight years. Does this have a positive impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno, a negative impact, or does it have no impact on your opinion of Kim Guadagno?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Positive             10%    26%     4%    10%    14%     7%     9%    12%
Negative             51     16     75     50     45     57     56     40
No impact            37     58     20     39     40     34     34     45
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      1      2      -      3
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    NonWht
 
Positive             14%     8%    11%    11%
Negative             46     52     49     56
No impact            39     39     39     31
DK/NA                 1      1      1      2