October 3, 2018 - Women Give Menendez 11-Point Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Oppose Kavanaugh Confirmation By Wide Margin Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With a big lift from New Jersey women, U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez, the Democratic incumbent, leads former pharmaceutical executive Bob Hugin, the Republican challenger, 53 - 42 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Only 5 percent of likely voters remain undecided, but 13 percent of voters who do name a candidate say they could change their mind by Election Day.

Women back Sen. Menendez 57 - 38 percent, while men are divided 48 - 48 percent.

This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.

Republicans go to Hugin 93 - 6 percent, as Democrats back Menendez 93 - 6 percent. Independent voters are divided with 48 percent for Hugin and 43 percent for Menendez.

The incumbent leads 67 - 26 percent among non-white voters. White voters are divided with 49 percent for Hugin and 48 percent for Menendez.

New Jersey likely voters give Menendez a split 46 - 44 percent job approval rating and a big negative 34 - 53 percent favorability rating. Hugin gets a positive 35 - 27 percent favorability rating, with 34 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"Sen. Robert Menendez has the advantage of representing very blue New Jersey, where there are many more Democrats than Republicans," said Mary Snow, polling analyst for the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Also working to his advantage is that 63 percent of New Jersey voters want Congress to be more of a check on President Donald Trump. That number is even higher among women."

New Jersey likely voters say 59 - 25 percent that Sen. Menendez is not honest. But Menendez cares about average people, voters say 48 - 39 percent.

Hugin is honest, voters say 39 - 24 percent. He cares about average people, voters say 38 - 31 percent, with 31 percent undecided.

"New Jersey likely voters may prefer Sen. Menendez over Republican challenger Bob Hugin, but they certainly make it clear they are not fond of Menendez," Snow added.

"Only one quarter of voters believe the incumbent is honest. Hugin, a former pharmaceutical executive, scores higher on honesty, at 39 percent, but just about as many people don't know enough about him to say for sure."

Judge Brett Kavanaugh

New Jersey likely voters say 59 - 35 percent that the U.S. Senate should not confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court.

Women oppose his confirmation 65 - 28 percent and men are opposed 51 - 42 percent. The only listed party, gender, education or racial group to support the confirmation are Republicans, 76 - 14 percent. White men are divided, with 50 percent for confirmation and 44 percent opposed.

Gov. Murphy, Sen. Booker, President Trump

New Jersey likely voters approve 54 - 34 percent of the job Gov. Phil Murphy is doing. Approval is 89 - 5 percent among Democrats and 47 - 40 percent among independent voters. Republicans disapprove 73 - 13 percent.

Voters approve 58 - 37 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Cory Booker is doing.

President Donald Trump gets a negative 35 - 62 percent job approval rating. The only listed group to approve of the president are Republicans, 81 - 17 percent.

Congress should be "more of a check on President Trump," 63 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say Congress is doing enough to check the president.

From September 25 - October 2, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,058 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Menendez the Democrat and Bob Hugin the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Robert Menendez the Democrat or more toward Bob Hugin the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Menendez             53%     6%    93%    43%    48%    57%    52%    43%
Hugin                42     93      6     48     48     38     46     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      1      2      8      4      5      2      4
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Menendez             38%    54%    48%    67%
Hugin                59     41     49     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      3      7
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Menendez      Hugin
 
Mind made up         86%    85%           88%
Might change         13     15            10
DK/NA                 1      1             2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Robert Menendez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            34%     6%    64%    22%    28%    38%    31%    30%
Unfavorable          53     86     25     60     61     47     60     59
Hvn't hrd enough     11      7      8     15      9     12      6     10
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      2      2      3      2
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            23%    36%    31%    41%
Unfavorable          68     53     59     38
Hvn't hrd enough      6      9      8     17
REFUSED               2      2      2      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Bob Hugin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            35%    77%    10%    36%    41%    30%    38%    43%
Unfavorable          27      5     48     20     23     31     29     21
Hvn't hrd enough     34     15     38     41     33     35     29     34
REFUSED               4      3      4      4      4      4      4      1
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            49%    34%    40%    23%
Unfavorable          20     30     26     31
Hvn't hrd enough     29     33     31     40
REFUSED               2      3      2      5
 
 
4. Would you say that Robert Menendez - is honest, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  25%     5%    48%    15%    24%    25%    23%    22%
No                   59     87     35     67     65     55     65     65
DK/NA                16      8     18     18     11     20     13     13
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes                  19%    25%    22%    32%
No                   73     59     65     47
DK/NA                 8     16     13     22
 
 
5. Would you say that Robert Menendez - cares about average people, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  48%    19%    75%    42%    47%    50%    49%    41%
No                   39     71     15     41     42     36     40     46
DK/NA                13     10     11     17     12     14     11     13
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes                  41%    48%    45%    56%
No                   48     39     43     28
DK/NA                11     13     12     16
 
 
6. Would you say that Bob Hugin - is honest, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  39%    80%    16%    39%    49%    31%    42%    47%
No                   24      5     39     19     22     26     23     17
DK/NA                37     15     45     42     29     43     36     36
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes                  56%    35%    44%    29%
No                   16     23     20     34
DK/NA                28     42     36     37
 
 
7. Would you say that Bob Hugin - cares about average people, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  38%    79%    18%    35%    45%    32%    39%    47%
No                   31      8     49     26     28     34     32     24
DK/NA                31     14     33     39     27     34     29     29
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes                  51%    37%    43%    26%
No                   24     31     28     39
DK/NA                25     32     29     35
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Phil Murphy is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              54%    13%    89%    47%    50%    57%    52%    44%
Disapprove           34     73      5     40     40     29     38     42
DK/NA                11     14      7     13     10     13     10     14
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              41%    54%    48%    69%
Disapprove           48     34     40     22
DK/NA                11     13     12      9
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Cory Booker is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              58%    14%    94%    50%    50%    65%    55%    50%
Disapprove           37     78      5     42     45     30     41     45
DK/NA                 5      8      1      7      5      5      5      5
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              41%    60%    52%    72%
Disapprove           54     34     43     22
DK/NA                 4      6      5      6
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Menendez is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              46%    12%    78%    37%    40%    51%    46%    42%
Disapprove           44     81     15     51     53     38     48     51
DK/NA                10      6      8     12      7     11      6      8
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              35%    51%    44%    51%
Disapprove           60     41     49     33
DK/NA                 5      8      7     16
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              35%    81%     4%    36%    41%    30%    37%    43%
Disapprove           62     17     95     59     57     67     60     54
DK/NA                 3      2      1      5      3      3      3      3
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              49%    33%    40%    22%
Disapprove           48     64     58     76
DK/NA                 2      3      3      2
 
 
12. In general, would you like to see Congress be more of a check on President Trump, or do you think Congress is doing enough to be a check on President Trump?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More of a check      63%    20%    94%    60%    58%    67%    61%    55%
Doing enough         28     57      5     33     34     24     30     37
LESS OF A CHECK(VOL)  3      9      -      2      3      3      5      3
DK/NA                 6     13      1      5      5      6      5      6
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
More of a check      50%    64%    58%    77%
Doing enough         41     27     33     18
LESS OF A CHECK(VOL)  5      3      4      -
DK/NA                 5      6      5      5
 
 
13. As you may know, President Trump has nominated Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Do you think the U.S. Senate should confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Confirm          35%    76%     5%    39%    42%    28%    38%    44%
No                   59     14     93     53     51     65     55     51
DK/NA                 7     10      2      8      6      7      7      5
 
                     WHITE.....           Non
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes/Confirm          50%    35%    41%    19%
No                   44     60     53     73
DK/NA                 7      6      6      7