October 27, 2010 - Cuomo Leads By 20 Points In New York Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillibrand Stuns Gop Challenger Word format New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Republican Carl Paladino 55 - 35 percent in the governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Another 7 percent are undecided and 11 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day. This compares to a 55 - 37 percent Cuomo lead in an October 7 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In today's survey, Cuomo even wins the support of 19 percent of Republicans, along with 88 percent of Democrats. Independent voters tip slightly to the Democrat 44 - 41 percent. Cuomo leads 57 - 30 percent among women and 53 - 39 percent among men. By a 55 - 33 percent margin, New York likely voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo, while Paladino's favorability is almost the exact opposite, a 57 - 29 percent negative. New York's Democratic U.S. senators have commanding leads over Republican challengers: U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops former Congressman Joseph DioGuardi 57 - 34 percent; Sen. Charles Schumer leads Jay Townsend 64 - 32 percent. "That Republican wave that's said to be sweeping the country runs into a levee - a dam, a blockade, whatever figure of speech you like - at the New York border probably because of Carl Paladino's foot-in-mouth disease. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo can start measuring the Executive Mansion curtains. This race is all but over," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But remember that blow-out polls have a built-in correction factor. Some of the blow- outer's supporters figure it's all right to stay home on Election Day. Some of the blow-outee's supporters figure they'd better make sure to vote to keep the score down. Result: it's still a blow- out but the numbers tighten," Carroll added. By a 54 - 24 percent margin, New York State likely voters have a favorable opinion of Gillibrand. DioGuardi gets a 30 - 16 percent favorability, with 50 percent who do not know enough about him to form an opinion. She leads 60 - 29 percent among women and 55 - 38 percent among men and even picks up 16 percent of Republican voters, along with 87 percent of Democrats and 56 percent of independent voters. Schumer gets a 63 - 30 percent favorability, compared to 23 - 15 percent for Townsend, with 59 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. "Sen. Charles Schumer might be focusing more on the Nevada results on election night. He looks to be an easy winner at home in New York. And if Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid loses, Schumer could be in line to lead Senate Democrats," Carroll said. "Everything's coming up roses for Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. She's emerged from a position of relative obscurity to take a 23-point lead with less than a week to go. And New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who was with her at a fancy gala last week, says she's 'stunning.' If you don't believe that, ask the Democratic and Republican would-be challengers who have been stunned by her in the last year." From October 18 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 672 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Cuomo 55% 19% 88% 44% 53% 57% Paladino 35 73 7 41 39 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 4 2 7 5 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 4 4 8 3 10 TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 07 Sep 22 2010 2010 2010 Cuomo 55 55 49 Paladino 35 37 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 6 7 1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q1 Tot AC CP Made up 88% 91% 84% Might change 11 8 16 DK/NA - - - 2. Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 55% 27% 82% 43% 51% 59% Unfavorable 33 64 9 43 38 29 Hvn't hrd enough 11 9 7 13 11 10 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 07 Sep 22 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 55 53 51 Unfavorable 33 34 34 Hvn't hrd enough 11 10 13 REFUSED 1 3 2 3. Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 29% 61% 7% 30% 32% 25% Unfavorable 57 22 86 47 57 56 Hvn't hrd enough 13 16 6 20 10 17 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 2 TREND: Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........ Oct 27 Oct 07 Sep 22 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 29 33 36 Unfavorable 57 49 31 Hvn't hrd enough 13 15 31 REFUSED 1 3 2 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Gillibrand 57% 16% 87% 56% 55% 60% DioGuardi 34 76 8 36 38 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 7 6 4 7 6 9 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 2010 Gillibrand 57 55 48 DioGuardi 34 34 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 7 11 9 4a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q4 Tot KG JD Made up 84% 81% 89% Might change 16 19 11 DK/NA - - - 5. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 54% 23% 73% 56% 54% 53% Unfavorable 24 46 5 31 30 16 Hvn't hrd enough 19 30 20 11 14 25 REFUSED 3 2 1 2 2 5 TREND: Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 54 49 43 Unfavorable 24 24 32 Hvn't hrd enough 19 24 24 REFUSED 3 3 1 6. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 30% 58% 13% 30% 35% 25% Unfavorable 16 4 25 15 18 14 Hvn't hrd enough 50 37 60 51 47 55 REFUSED 3 1 2 3 1 6 TREND: Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........ Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 30 27 26 Unfavorable 16 11 12 Hvn't hrd enough 50 61 61 REFUSED 3 2 2 7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Schumer 64% 25% 93% 63% 61% 68% Townsend 32 74 6 34 38 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - DK/NA 3 1 1 3 1 6 TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners) LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 2010 Schumer 64 63 54 Townsend 32 32 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 3 4 7 7a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS......... CAND CHOICE Q7 Tot CS JT Made up 91% 91% 90% Might change 9 9 10 DK/NA - - - 8. Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 63% 29% 93% 57% 62% 65% Unfavorable 30 63 3 37 35 23 Hvn't hrd enough 5 7 3 6 2 8 REFUSED 2 1 1 - - 4 TREND: Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 63 62 55 Unfavorable 30 31 37 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 8 REFUSED 2 1 1 9. Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 23% 53% 6% 20% 27% 19% Unfavorable 15 5 23 13 14 15 Hvn't hrd enough 59 41 68 67 58 61 REFUSED 3 2 2 - 1 5 TREND: Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS......... Oct 27 Oct 08 Sep 23 2010 2010 2010 Favorable 23 22 21 Unfavorable 15 12 9 Hvn't hrd enough 59 65 70 REFUSED 3 1 1
