July 25, 2019 - Biden Is Only Leading Dem To Top Trump In Ohio, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Former V.P. Has Big Lead In Democratic Primary Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Former Vice President Joseph Biden leads President Donald Trump 50 - 42 percent in the critical swing state of Ohio, the only leading Democratic candidate to top the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The other leading Democratic contenders each are locked in a dead heat with President Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds:
  • 46 percent for Trump to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 45 percent;
  • Trump at 46 percent to Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 45 percent;
  • 44 - 44 percent between Trump and California Sen. Kamala Harris;
  • 44 - 44 percent between Trump and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg;
  • 44 percent for Trump to 43 percent for New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.
Women, black voters and independent voters give Biden his lead in the matchup with Trump. Biden leads 53 - 40 percent among women, as men are split with 46 percent for Biden and 45 percent for Trump. White voters are divided, with 48 percent for Trump and 45 percent for Biden. Black voters go Democratic 84 - 8 percent.

Independent voters go to Biden 55 - 32 percent. Republicans back Trump 86 - 10 percent as Biden leads 96 - 2 percent among Democrats.

"Former Vice President Joseph Biden calls himself a blue-collar guy. With Ohio certainly a blue-collar state, it is no surprise he is the Democrat who runs best against President Donald Trump and is solidly ahead in the Democratic primary in the Buckeye State," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Biden runs best against President Trump in every Quinnipiac University state poll so far. To get reelected, Trump will need to win the industrial Midwest. Ohio certainly is key to that plan."

Most Ohio voters, 58 percent, say they are better off financially today than they were in 2016, as 22 percent say they are worse off.

But Buckeye voters still give Trump a negative 43 - 52 percent job approval rating, compared to a negative 43 - 54 percent score in a June 13, 2018 Quinnipiac University poll.

Democratic Primary

Biden leads the pack for the March 17 Democratic Presidential Primary, with 31 percent of Democrats and independent voters leaning Democratic.

Harris and Sanders have 14 percent each, with 13 percent for Warren and 6 percent for Buttigieg. There are eight candidates at 1 percent and 12 candidates polling at less than 1 percent.

"Vice President Biden's blue-collar roots aren't necessarily the key to his success. It's his half century in Democratic politics and almost universal name recognition," Brown said.

"After all, U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan is the only native Buckeye in the crowded Democratic pack, yet he is polling at just 1 percent. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg also is getting little help from his status as a neighbor.

"The other three coastal candidates - Senators Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris - are not getting any special love from the blue collar base. And each of them trail Biden by a 2-1 margin."

From July 17 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,431 Ohio voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, including the design effect. The survey includes 556 Democrats and independent voters leaning Democratic, with a margin of error of +/- 5.1 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for president; a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
A lot                42%    45%    53%    31%    42%    42%    50%    37%
Some                 30     35     26     32     28     32     29     34
Only a little        16     13     14     19     18     14     13     17
None at all          11      6      7     18     11     11      8     11
DK/NA                 1      -      -      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A lot                25%    38%    47%    55%    44%    41%    42%    46%
Some                 28     36     27     31     29     35     32     20
Only a little        28     12     15      9     17     14     15     16
None at all          19     12     10      4     10     10     10     18
DK/NA                 -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Yes    No
 
A lot                49%    57%    49%    45%    45%    52%    50%    53%    58%    44%
Some                 27     28     30     25     28     26     28     21     26     30
Only a little        15     13     14     15     17     12     15     13     11     19
None at all           9      2      6     14     10      8      7     14      6      8
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     PARTYID.....  AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............
                     Dem    DemLn  18-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+
 
A lot                53%    40%    38%    54%    65%    42%    56%    58%
Some                 26     30     29     24     25     28     26     26
Only a little        14     16     18     16      5     19     13     10
None at all           7     13     14      6      4     11      5      7
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      1      -
 
 
2. (If Democrat or Democratic leaner) If the Democratic primary for president were being held today, and the candidates were: Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Beto O'Rourke, Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Kirsten Gillibrand, Amy Klobuchar, Julian Castro, Tulsi Gabbard, Jay Inslee, John Hickenlooper, John Delaney, Pete Buttigieg, Andrew Yang, Marianne Williamson, Wayne Messam, Tim Ryan, Seth Moulton, Michael Bennet, Steve Bullock, Bill de Blasio, Mike Gravel, Joe Sestak, and Tom Steyer, for whom would you vote?
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS.......................................
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY                             WHITE......
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Yes    No
 
Biden                31%    16%    24%    40%    31%    31%    30%    36%    25%    34%
Sanders              14     21     16      8     14     13     12     20      9     14
O'Rourke              1      -      -      2      1      1      1      2      -      1
Harris               14     25     12     10     15     14     14     18     20      8
Warren               13     18     21      7     13     12     16      5     20     13
Booker                1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
Gillibrand            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Klobuchar             1      1      4      -      1      2      2      -      2      1
Castro                1      -      2      -      -      1      -      -      1      -
Gabbard               1      1      -      1      1      -      1      -      -      1
Inslee                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Hickenlooper          -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -      -      1
Delaney               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg             6      8     10      4      8      5      8      1      8      8
Yang                  1      2      -      1      3      -      1      -      1      2
Williamson            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Messam                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  1      -      -      2      2      1      2      1      1      2
Moulton               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Bennet                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      1
Bullock               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
de Blasio             -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Gravel                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Sestak                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Steyer                1      -      -      2      2      -      -      3      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      -      2      -      4      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      3      -      3      1      -      2      1
DK/NA                11      7      8     14      6     14      9      9      9     10
 
                     PARTYID.....  AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............
                     Dem    DemLn  18-49  50-64  65+    <50k   50-100 100k+
 
Biden                33%    25%    15%    38%    51%    34%    25%    29%
Sanders              11     21     25      7      1     18     11      9
O'Rourke              1      1      2      1      -      1      2      1
Harris               14     15     17     16     10     11     20     16
Warren               15      8     12     15     15     10     17     16
Booker                1      -      -      1      2      1      1      1
Gillibrand            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Klobuchar             2      -      -      2      2      -      3      1
Castro                1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -
Gabbard               1      -      -      1      -      -      1      1
Inslee                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Hickenlooper          -      -      -      1      -      -      1      1
Delaney               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Buttigieg             6      8     10      6      2      5      5     13
Yang                  -      3      2      -      -      1      2      -
Williamson            -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Messam                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Ryan                  2      1      1      2      2      2      -      -
Moulton               -      -      -      -      -      -      1      -
Bennet                -      -      -      -      1      -      -      -
Bullock               -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
de Blasio             -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Gravel                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Sestak                -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
Steyer                1      -      1      -      1      -      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      -      1      3      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1      1      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 9     15      9      9     10     12      8      9
 
                     ATTN TO PRES CAMPAIGN Q1
                                   Little/
                     A lot  Some   None
 
Biden                36%    30%    21%
Sanders               7     18     23
O'Rourke              -      3      1
Harris               20      9      7
Warren               14     15      9
Booker                -      2      1
Gillibrand            -      -      -
Klobuchar             2      1      -
Castro                1      -      -
Gabbard               -      -      1
Inslee                -      -      -
Hickenlooper          -      1      -
Delaney               -      -      -
Buttigieg             9      7      1
Yang                  -      2      3
Williamson            -      -      -
Messam                -      -      -
Ryan                  1      1      3
Moulton               -      -      -
Bennet                -      -      -
Bullock               -      -      -
de Blasio             -      -      -
Gravel                -      -      -
Sestak                -      -      -
Steyer                -      -      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      3
DK/NA                 6      9     24
 
 
3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                50%    10%    96%    55%    46%    53%    49%    41%
Trump                42     86      2     32     45     40     44     52
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      3      3      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      6      2      2      2      2
DK/NA                 4      3      1      5      4      3      4      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Biden                61%    43%    49%    50%    41%    47%    45%    84%
Trump                25     50     46     45     50     47     48      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      2      1      1      2      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      1      2      1      2      2      2      1
DK/NA                 4      4      3      4      4      3      4      5
 
 
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              45%     5%    91%    51%    41%    49%    44%    37%
Trump                46     91      4     35     51     41     48     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      2      2      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      3      5      2      3      3      3
DK/NA                 4      2      2      7      4      5      3      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Sanders              59%    41%    44%    41%    37%    43%    40%    80%
Trump                32     52     49     49     56     48     52      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      1      2      2      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      4      3      4      3      2
DK/NA                 4      4      3      3      3      4      3      6
 
 
5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Warren               45%     4%    94%    48%    40%    49%    42%    36%
Trump                46     91      2     37     51     42     48     55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      2      2      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      6      3      4      4      3
DK/NA                 4      2      2      7      4      5      4      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Warren               54%    38%    44%    45%    36%    42%    39%    80%
Trump                32     53     47     48     56     49     52     10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      1      1      1      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      2      3      4      3      3
DK/NA                 6      2      5      4      4      5      5      4
 
 
6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Harris               44%     6%    92%    43%    40%    47%    42%    36%
Trump                44     90      3     34     48     41     46     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      1      7      3      3      4      3
DK/NA                 7      2      3     13      6      7      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Harris               55%    39%    43%    42%    36%    41%    39%    81%
Trump                27     51     48     48     54     48     51      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      1      2      2      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      2      4      3      3      3
DK/NA                10      4      6      5      5      7      6      6
 
 
7. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Pete Buttigieg the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Buttigieg            44%     5%    91%    47%    42%    46%    43%    35%
Trump                44     91      3     32     48     41     47     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      7      3      3      3      3
DK/NA                 6      3      3     11      5      8      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Buttigieg            58%    37%    42%    41%    38%    40%    39%    79%
Trump                28     51     47     48     53     48     50      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      4      1      2      1      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      3      4      3      3      3
DK/NA                 7      5      7      5      4      7      6      7
 
 
8. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Cory Booker the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Booker               43%     4%    92%    44%    40%    46%    43%    36%
Trump                44     89      3     34     49     41     47     53
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      5      3      2      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      6      3      4      4      3
DK/NA                 6      4      2     11      5      7      5      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Booker               58%    35%    42%    42%    36%    40%    39%    80%
Trump                29     51     47     48     54     48     50      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      5      1      2      2      2      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      3      3      4      3      2
DK/NA                 6      6      6      5      4      7      6      5
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              43%    87%     4%    32%    45%    41%    44%    53%
Disapprove           52     11     96     58     49     54     51     42
DK/NA                 5      2      -     10      6      5      5      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              25%    50%    47%    48%    50%    48%    49%     7%
Disapprove           65     47     49     49     44     47     46     88
DK/NA                10      2      4      3      6      4      5      5
 
 
15. Would you say that you are better off or worse off financially today than you were in 2016?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Better off           58%    86%    30%    56%    66%    52%    66%    61%
Worse off            22      5     41     24     18     26     17     19
SAME(VOL)            17      8     27     17     15     19     17     17
DK/NA                 3      1      2      3      2      4      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Better off           67%    61%    55%    49%    70%    57%    63%    33%
Worse off            17     20     26     23     16     20     18     44
SAME(VOL)            13     17     18     24     13     20     17     17
DK/NA                 3      2      2      4      1      3      2      6