September 30, 2020 - South Carolina Senate Race: Graham And Harrison Tied, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Divided On Trump Filling SCOTUS Vacancy Before Election Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Republican incumbent Senator Lindsey Graham and Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison are locked in a dead heat in the race for U.S. Senate, 48 - 48 percent, according to a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University poll of likely voters, which was conducted prior to the presidential debate. This is unchanged from a September 16th survey, which also showed both candidates each getting 48 percent support.

Ninety-five percent of likely voters who selected a candidate in the Senate match up say their minds are made up, while 4 percent say they might change their minds.

"There hasn't been a Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998. Outspent and labeled by critics as an apologist for President Trump, Lindsey Graham is facing the fight of his political life," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

In general, 49 percent of likely voters want to see the Republican Party win control of the U.S. Senate, while 44 percent want the Democratic Party.

VOTING IN 2020

A big majority of likely voters in South Carolina (71 percent) think they will vote in person on Election Day, while 25 percent say they will vote early by mail or absentee ballot.

HARRISON VS. GRAHAM: PERSONAL TRAITS

Harrison receives higher scores than Graham when it comes to honesty, empathy, and likely voters' overall opinions about the candidates.

Likely voters give Harrison a positive favorability rating, 48 - 35 percent, while Graham's favorability rating is negative, 51 - 43 percent.

When it comes to honesty, likely voters say Harrison is honest 51 - 25 percent, with 24 percent saying they don't know. For Graham, likely voters say 50 - 40 percent that he is not honest.

Harrison gets another positive score on whether or not he cares about average people, as likely voters say he does, 59 - 25 percent. Graham gets another negative score on whether or not he cares about average people, with 50 percent saying he does not and 44 percent saying that he does.

Twenty-one percent of voters name the economy as the most important issue in deciding who to vote for in the Senate race, and 20 percent say law and order.

TRUMP APPROVALS

On the way President Trump is handling his job, 49 percent of likely voters approve and 48 percent disapprove. Forty-eight percent of likely voters approve of his handling of the response to the coronavirus and 50 percent disapprove.

2020 PRESIDENTIAL RACE

In this pre-debate poll, President Trump receives 48 percent support among likely voters, while former Vice President Joe Biden receives 47 percent support. This compares to a September 16th poll when Trump had 51 percent to Biden's 45 percent, a change which is not statistically significant.

Both candidates receive similar favorability ratings as likely voters are roughly divided on both. Forty- nine percent of likely voters give Biden an unfavorable rating, while 46 percent say favorable. Trump gets an evenly split 48 - 48 percent favorability rating.

Likely voters are also divided on who would do a better job handling two issues that have emerged in the wake of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg's death: Supreme Court nominations and health care.

On who would do a better job handling Supreme Court nominations, 50 percent say Trump and 47 percent say Biden.

On who would do a better job handling health care, 48 percent say Biden and 47 percent say Trump.

SUPREME COURT, ACA, & ABORTION

On the question of who should fill the vacancy on the Supreme Court, 49 percent say it should be the winner of the presidential election, while 47 percent say it should be President Trump before the election.

"POTUS picked the SCOTUS nominee, but almost half of likely voters say before the election it's not Trump's call on who to install," added Malloy.

With the Supreme Court set to hear arguments in November challenging the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, half of likely voters (50 percent) say they would like to see the law remain in place, while 43 percent say they would like to see it ended.

A majority of likely voters (55 percent) agree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion, while 37 percent disagree.

1,123 likely South Carolina voters were surveyed from September 23 - 27 with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than twenty states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Email poll@qu.edu, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Joe Biden the Democrat or Donald Trump the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                47%     5%    99%    52%    40%    52%    46%    28%
Trump                48     94      -     39     54     42     50     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      2      -
DK/NA                 4      1      1      7      5      4      2      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Biden                47%    49%    47%    29%    39%    35%    87%
Trump                45     48     51     68     56     61      8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      2      2      3      4      3      4
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Biden  Trump
 
Mind made up         97%    96%    98%
Might change          2      3      2
DK/NA                 1      2      -
 
 
2. Thinking about the 2020 election, do you think you will vote in person on Election Day, or do you think that you will vote early by mail or absentee ballot?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
In person            71%    88%    56%    67%    75%    68%    69%    80%
Mail/Absentee ballot 25      9     40     31     22     28     29     17
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 3      3      4      3      3      4      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
In person            80%    76%    55%    79%    74%    76%    55%
Mail/Absentee ballot 18     21     41     20     22     22     41
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      4      1      4      3      4
 
                     CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Biden  Trump
 
In person            54%    88%
Mail/Absentee ballot 42      9
WON'T VOTE(VOL)       -      -
DK/NA                 4      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            46%     5%    97%    49%    39%    52%    45%    26%
Unfavorable          49     93      1     43     55     44     52     69
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      1      7      3      4      3      4
REFUSED               2      -      1      1      2      1      -      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            44%    49%    47%    27%    39%    33%    87%
Unfavorable          48     47     50     69     57     63      8
Hvn't hrd enough      5      4      2      4      4      4      3
REFUSED               2      -      1      -      -      -      2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            48%    93%     -     41%    53%    44%    48%    69%
Unfavorable          48      6     97     55     43     52     50     30
Hvn't hrd enough      1      -      1      3      1      1      1      1
REFUSED               3      -      2      2      3      2      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            46%    47%    51%    66%    57%    61%    11%
Unfavorable          51     50     47     33     42     38     84
Hvn't hrd enough      -      2      1      1      1      1      1
REFUSED               3      1      1      1      1      1      4
 
 
5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Jaime Harrison the Democrat and Lindsey Graham the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Jaime Harrison the Democrat or Lindsey Graham the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Harrison             48%     5%    97%    54%    42%    53%    46%    30%
Graham               48     94      2     39     54     43     51     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      2      -
DK/NA                 3      1      -      6      4      3      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Harrison             52%    47%    48%    31%    41%    36%    88%
Graham               44     49     51     67     57     61      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 3      3      1      1      2      2      4
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q14................
                            Health Corona Racial Law+   Suprm
                     Econ   care   virus  Inequl Order  Court
 
Harrison             19%    84%    90%    90%     5%    46%
Graham               78     14      8      5     92     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      4      -      -
DK/NA                 3      3      2      1      3      -
 
 
5a. (If candidate chosen q5) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q5..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q5
                     Tot    Harrison      Graham
 
Mind made up         95%    96%           94%
Might change          4      4             5
DK/NA                 -      -             1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Jaime Harrison favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            48%     9%    97%    50%    41%    54%    47%    31%
Unfavorable          35     68      1     30     39     32     38     49
Hvn't hrd enough     14     20      2     18     18     11     14     18
REFUSED               3      3      -      2      3      2      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            49%    47%    51%    31%    42%    37%    85%
Unfavorable          33     37     35     47     42     44      6
Hvn't hrd enough     16     15     11     21     13     17      8
REFUSED               3      -      2      1      3      2      1
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            43%    86%     3%    33%    48%    39%    44%    61%
Unfavorable          51     11     95     60     46     56     54     33
Hvn't hrd enough      4      2      3      5      3      4      1      5
REFUSED               2      1      -      2      2      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            35%    45%    48%    61%    50%    55%     7%
Unfavorable          56     52     49     35     46     41     86
Hvn't hrd enough      8      2      2      4      3      3      6
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
 
8. Would you say that - Jaime Harrison is honest, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  51%    18%    94%    52%    43%    57%    52%    35%
No                   25     43      3     24     30     21     26     34
DK/NA                24     39      3     24     27     21     22     32
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  48%    53%    57%    36%    46%    41%    86%
No                   29     24     21     35     27     30      5
DK/NA                23     23     23     30     27     28      9
 
 
9. Would you say that - Lindsey Graham is honest, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  40%    75%     4%    34%    44%    36%    44%    53%
No                   50     14     93     57     45     55     49     36
DK/NA                10     12      3     10     11      9      8     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  31%    42%    46%    53%    46%    49%    10%
No                   58     50     47     37     44     41     82
DK/NA                11      8      8     10     10     10      8
 
 
10. Would you say that - Jaime Harrison cares about average people, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  59%    30%    98%    58%    52%    64%    60%    43%
No                   25     46      1     23     27     23     25     35
DK/NA                16     24      1     19     20     12     15     22
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  60%    60%    60%    44%    54%    50%    93%
No                   23     26     25     33     30     31      3
DK/NA                16     14     15     24     16     19      4
 
 
11. Would you say that - Lindsey Graham cares about average people, or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes                  44%    80%     5%    39%    46%    42%    45%    59%
No                   50     13     91     56     45     53     51     34
DK/NA                 7      7      4      6      9      5      4      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  37%    46%    48%    57%    51%    54%    14%
No                   54     50     48     37     44     41     80
DK/NA                 9      4      4      6      5      6      6
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG Wht  
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No     Evang
                                                                                  
Approve              49%    93%     1%    41%    54%    44%    49%    69%    82%  
Disapprove           48      5     97     56     43     53     49     28     15   
DK/NA                 3      2      2      3      3      3      2      2      3   
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              44%    48%    51%    68%    57%    62%     9%
Disapprove           52     50     46     31     40     36     87
DK/NA                 4      2      2      1      3      2      3
 
 
13. If the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Republican Party     49%    95%     1%    42%    55%    45%    53%    70%
Democratic Party     44      4     98     47     37     50     43     24
DK/NA                 6      -      1     10      8      5      4      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Republican Party     46%    49%    52%    69%    58%    63%     8%
Democratic Party     42     48     46     25     37     32     87
DK/NA                12      3      2      6      5      5      5
 
 
14. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to vote for in the election for United States Senator: the economy, immigration, health care, climate change, the coronavirus pandemic, racial inequality, law and order, or the Supreme Court?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              21%    34%     8%    19%    26%    17%    26%    24%
Immigration           2      3      1      1      1      3      2      3
Health care          13      4     23     13     11     14      9     12
Climate change        3      1      5      5      5      2      6      2
Coronavirus          14      4     31     12      9     18     12      6
Racial inequality    10      2     18     12      9     10     10      4
Law and order        20     36      3     17     22     18     17     29
Supreme Court        12     11     10     14     11     12     15     13
DK/NA                 6      5      4      8      6      5      3      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Economy              25%    22%    16%    32%    19%    25%     9%
Immigration           1      2      2      1      4      3      -
Health care          13     11     16      8     13     11     21
Climate change        4      2      4      5      3      4      2
Coronavirus           8     17     18      5     11      9     30
Racial inequality    15     10      4      5      8      6     22
Law and order        20     17     23     27     22     25      6
Supreme Court        11     14     10     12     14     13      6
DK/NA                 3      4      7      4      6      5      3
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling the response to the coronavirus?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              48%    92%     4%    39%    54%    43%    48%    69%
Disapprove           50      6     96     58     43     55     49     30
DK/NA                 2      1      -      3      3      2      3      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              43%    51%    49%    67%    56%    61%     8%
Disapprove           54     49     49     31     42     37     91
DK/NA                 3      1      1      2      2      2      1
 
 
16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling health care: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                47%    92%     1%    39%    53%    42%    50%    67%
Biden                48      5     99     55     42     53     46     29
DK/NA                 4      3      -      6      4      4      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Trump                44%    49%    50%    66%    55%    60%    10%
Biden                51     50     48     31     39     36     88
DK/NA                 5      2      2      3      5      4      2
 
 
17. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job - handling Supreme Court nominations: Donald Trump or Joe Biden?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Trump                50%    95%     1%    43%    55%    45%    51%    70%
Biden                47      4     98     52     40     53     45     28
DK/NA                 3      1      1      5      4      2      4      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Trump                46%    50%    52%    69%    58%    63%    10%
Biden                51     47     47     29     39     34     88
DK/NA                 3      3      1      3      3      3      2
 
 
18. In general, would you like to see the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare, remain in place, or would you like to see Obamacare ended?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Remain in place      50%     8%    97%    59%    42%    57%    49%    30%
Ended                43     85      2     33     50     37     44     62
DK/NA                 6      6      1      8      8      5      6      8
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Remain in place      52%    53%    51%    29%    44%    37%    93%
Ended                42     42     43     64     49     55      5
DK/NA                 6      6      6      7      7      7      1
 
 
19. In general, do you agree or disagree with the 1973 Roe v. Wade Supreme Court decision that established a woman's right to an abortion?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Agree                55%    24%    86%    65%    52%    59%    63%    42%
Disagree             37     66     11     27     40     35     33     48
DK/NA                 8     11      3      8      8      7      4      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Agree                56%    57%    54%    46%    54%    51%    72%
Disagree             40     34     38     48     38     42     24
DK/NA                 3      9      8      6      8      7      5
 
 
20. Which comes closer to your point of view regarding the Supreme Court vacancy created by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by the winner of the presidential election, or the Supreme Court vacancy should be filled by President Trump before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                               WHITE........
                                                               4 YR COLL DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Election winner      49%     6%    97%    56%    42%    55%    46%    30%
President Trump      47     89      1     42     53     42     52     67
DK/NA                 4      5      1      2      5      3      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    WHITE.....
                     18-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Election winner      52%    50%    48%    29%    41%    36%    91%
President Trump      43     49     49     68     56     61      7
DK/NA                 4      1      3      3      3      3      2
 
                     CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Biden  Trump
 
Election winner      95%     5%
President Trump       3     93
DK/NA                 2      3