May 30, 2018 - Cruz Opens Lead Over O'Rourke in Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; In Governor's Race, Abbott Tops Valdez By 19 Points Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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With a big boost from men, Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, 50 - 39 percent in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to the results of an April 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing the race too close to call with Sen. Cruz at 47 percent and O'Rourke at 44 percent.

Today, Cruz leads 57 - 35 percent among men, up from 51 - 40 percent April 18. Women go 44 percent for Cruz and 42 percent for O'Rourke, compared to last month when women went 47 percent for O'Rourke and 43 percent for Cruz.

Cruz gets 46 percent of Hispanic voters, with 44 percent for O'Rourke. White voters back Cruz 62 - 28 percent and black voters go to O'Rourke 70 - 15 percent.

Republicans go to Cruz 90 - 3 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 82 - 11 percent. Independent voters are divided with 43 percent for O'Rourke and 41 percent for Cruz.

Texas voters approve 52 - 39 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 49 - 38 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke gets a 30 - 19 percent favorability rating, while 50 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him.

Immigration, health care and the economy are the most important issues in their U.S. Senate vote, as 23 percent of Texas voters cite each of these issues, with 17 percent for gun policy.

"Sen. Ted Cruz, apparently benefitting from a nationwide Republican mini-move, has taken a solid lead in his reelection race," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll.

"President Donald Trump's Texas numbers also have climbed during those six weeks moving from a nine point deficit on job approval to an even split today. It is hard not to see a pro- Cruz effect there."

"Finally, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke's lead among independent voters has shrunk," Brown added. "Sen. Cruz has improved his standing among some key groups, including independent voters, Hispanic voters and men."

Governor's Race

In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 53 - 34 percent, doubling his 49 - 40 percent lead in the April 18 Quinnipiac University poll.

Gov. Abbott leads 58 - 28 percent among men and 48 - 40 percent among women. White voters back Abbott 69 - 22 percent, while black voters back Valdez 66 - 21 percent. Hispanic voters are divided with 43 percent for Valdez and 39 percent for Abbott.

Abbott leads 94 - 2 percent among Republicans and 45 - 38 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Valdez 78 - 12 percent.

Texas voters approve 60 - 29 percent of the job Abbott is doing and give him a 53 - 27 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a 25 - 19 percent favorability rating, but 53 percent of voters don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her.

"Gov. Greg Abbott is way ahead in his reelection bid. Lupe Valdez has won the Democratic Primary and is now able to focus on the general election. But she has a long way to go," Brown said.

President Trump's Approval

Texas voters give President Donald Trump a divided 47 - 47 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 43 - 52 percent approval April 18.

Republicans approve 88 - 7 percent. Disapproval is 92 - 3 percent among Democrats and 54 - 40 percent among independent voters.

Texas voters approve 40 - 30 percent of the job U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is doing.

From May 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 961 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Valdez               34%     2%    78%    38%    28%    40%    28%    17%
Abbott               53     94     12     45     58     48     63     74
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      3      3      2      2      1
DK/NA                 9      3      9     12     10      8      6      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Valdez               33%    37%    36%    35%    18%    25%    22%    66%    43%
Abbott               47     49     55     58     73     65     69     21     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      3      1      -      1      2      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      2      1      2      1      2      1      4
DK/NA                15      9      6      6      7      6      7     12     13
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            53%    86%    18%    44%    60%    46%    60%    67%
Unfavorable          27      4     56     31     24     30     30     17
Hvn't hrd enough     17      9     22     21     14     21      7     14
REFUSED               3      1      4      3      2      4      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            40%    52%    58%    59%    68%    61%    64%    26%    42%
Unfavorable          27     26     31     27     22     24     23     39     26
Hvn't hrd enough     29     20      9     12      9     13     11     27     32
REFUSED               4      2      3      2      2      2      2      7      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            25%     4%    52%    28%    21%    29%    20%    14%
Unfavorable          19     32      5     17     24     15     29     24
Hvn't hrd enough     53     61     43     52     54     53     48     60
REFUSED               2      3      -      3      1      3      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            23%    26%    28%    24%    15%    18%    17%    43%    30%
Unfavorable          15     19     21     21     32     20     26      6     11
Hvn't hrd enough     60     53     48     53     50     59     55     47     58
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      3      3      3      4      1
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             39%     3%    82%    43%    35%    42%    35%    21%
Cruz                 50     90     11     41     57     44     58     64
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      1      2      2      1      2
DK/NA                 9      4      7     13      6     11      5     12
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             46%    34%    42%    35%    26%    29%    28%    70%    44%
Cruz                 41     51     49     57     66     57     62     15     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      2      1      2      2      1      2
DK/NA                11     12      7      6      7     10      8     14      7
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            49%    86%    14%    40%    57%    42%    56%    64%
Unfavorable          38      7     74     45     35     42     39     24
Hvn't hrd enough     10      5     12     11      7     13      3     10
REFUSED               2      2      -      4      1      3      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            42%    51%    48%    57%    66%    56%    60%    15%    45%
Unfavorable          44     36     42     35     27     34     31     68     35
Hvn't hrd enough     12     11      9      6      6      7      7     13     19
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1      4      2      4      -
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            30%     8%    60%    32%    29%    31%    29%    20%
Unfavorable          19     32      4     16     24     14     23     23
Hvn't hrd enough     50     59     34     50     46     53     48     56
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      -      3      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            31%    29%    32%    30%    26%    22%    24%    38%    39%
Unfavorable          16     19     21     15     28     19     23      5     15
Hvn't hrd enough     51     51     45     55     45     58     52     54     45
REFUSED               3      2      2      -      1      1      1      4      1
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              60%    89%    30%    54%    65%    54%    66%    73%
Disapprove           29      4     61     32     25     32     28     17
DK/NA                12      7      9     13     10     13      6     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              52%    57%    62%    65%    74%    67%    70%    39%    49%
Disapprove           30     29     32     26     21     23     22     46     31
DK/NA                19     14      6      9      5     10      8     14     20
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              52%    86%    19%    45%    58%    46%    55%    64%
Disapprove           39      8     76     45     37     42     40     27
DK/NA                 9      6      6     10      5     12      5      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              44%    57%    49%    58%    65%    55%    60%    27%    51%
Disapprove           42     35     46     37     30     35     33     63     37
DK/NA                14      8      5      6      5      9      7     10     11
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              40%    56%    24%    39%    43%    38%    48%    40%
Disapprove           30     14     52     31     31     29     29     24
DK/NA                30     30     24     29     26     33     23     36
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              30%    37%    38%    53%    47%    43%    45%    36%    33%
Disapprove           30     29     34     28     29     24     26     44     31
DK/NA                40     34     28     19     25     33     29     20     36
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              47%    88%     3%    40%    51%    44%    57%    70%
Disapprove           47      7     92     54     44     50     38     27
DK/NA                 5      5      5      6      5      6      5      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              35%    45%    50%    55%    65%    63%    64%    12%    31%
Disapprove           59     47     46     41     32     33     32     79     63
DK/NA                 6      7      4      4      3      4      4      9      6
 
 
11. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, or gun policy?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              23%    24%    15%    29%    27%    19%    27%    22%
Taxes                 8     10      7      7      8      9      8      5
Health care          23     15     33     21     20     25     19     24
Immigration          23     34     17     18     24     22     29     27
Gun policy           17     15     23     17     16     19     13     18
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      -      2      3      3      2      2      1
DK/NA                 4      2      3      5      3      4      2      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              23%    26%    22%    19%    26%    23%    24%    16%    22%
Taxes                 8      9      8      7      6      6      6     10     11
Health care          26     20     23     23     18     23     21     28     23
Immigration          18     17     22     34     30     28     29     11     17
Gun policy           22     20     17     12     15     16     16     26     19
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      4      1      2      2      1      2      1      3
DK/NA                 1      3      6      3      3      3      3      8      3