May 30, 2018 - Cruz Opens Lead Over O'Rourke in Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; In Governor's Race, Abbott Tops Valdez By 19 Points PDF format Additional Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail With a big boost from men, Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, 50 - 39 percent in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This compares to the results of an April 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, showing the race too close to call with Sen. Cruz at 47 percent and O'Rourke at 44 percent. Today, Cruz leads 57 - 35 percent among men, up from 51 - 40 percent April 18. Women go 44 percent for Cruz and 42 percent for O'Rourke, compared to last month when women went 47 percent for O'Rourke and 43 percent for Cruz. Cruz gets 46 percent of Hispanic voters, with 44 percent for O'Rourke. White voters back Cruz 62 - 28 percent and black voters go to O'Rourke 70 - 15 percent. Republicans go to Cruz 90 - 3 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 82 - 11 percent. Independent voters are divided with 43 percent for O'Rourke and 41 percent for Cruz. Texas voters approve 52 - 39 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 49 - 38 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke gets a 30 - 19 percent favorability rating, while 50 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him. Immigration, health care and the economy are the most important issues in their U.S. Senate vote, as 23 percent of Texas voters cite each of these issues, with 17 percent for gun policy. "Sen. Ted Cruz, apparently benefitting from a nationwide Republican mini-move, has taken a solid lead in his reelection race," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "President Donald Trump's Texas numbers also have climbed during those six weeks moving from a nine point deficit on job approval to an even split today. It is hard not to see a pro- Cruz effect there." "Finally, U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke's lead among independent voters has shrunk," Brown added. "Sen. Cruz has improved his standing among some key groups, including independent voters, Hispanic voters and men." Governor's Race In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 53 - 34 percent, doubling his 49 - 40 percent lead in the April 18 Quinnipiac University poll. Gov. Abbott leads 58 - 28 percent among men and 48 - 40 percent among women. White voters back Abbott 69 - 22 percent, while black voters back Valdez 66 - 21 percent. Hispanic voters are divided with 43 percent for Valdez and 39 percent for Abbott. Abbott leads 94 - 2 percent among Republicans and 45 - 38 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Valdez 78 - 12 percent. Texas voters approve 60 - 29 percent of the job Abbott is doing and give him a 53 - 27 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a 25 - 19 percent favorability rating, but 53 percent of voters don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. "Gov. Greg Abbott is way ahead in his reelection bid. Lupe Valdez has won the Democratic Primary and is now able to focus on the general election. But she has a long way to go," Brown said. President Trump's Approval Texas voters give President Donald Trump a divided 47 - 47 percent approval rating, compared to a negative 43 - 52 percent approval April 18. Republicans approve 88 - 7 percent. Disapproval is 92 - 3 percent among Democrats and 54 - 40 percent among independent voters. Texas voters approve 40 - 30 percent of the job U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is doing. From May 23 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 961 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Valdez 34% 2% 78% 38% 28% 40% 28% 17% Abbott 53 94 12 45 58 48 63 74 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 3 3 2 2 1 DK/NA 9 3 9 12 10 8 6 7 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Valdez 33% 37% 36% 35% 18% 25% 22% 66% 43% Abbott 47 49 55 58 73 65 69 21 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 3 1 - 1 2 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 2 1 2 1 2 1 4 DK/NA 15 9 6 6 7 6 7 12 13 2. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 53% 86% 18% 44% 60% 46% 60% 67% Unfavorable 27 4 56 31 24 30 30 17 Hvn't hrd enough 17 9 22 21 14 21 7 14 REFUSED 3 1 4 3 2 4 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 40% 52% 58% 59% 68% 61% 64% 26% 42% Unfavorable 27 26 31 27 22 24 23 39 26 Hvn't hrd enough 29 20 9 12 9 13 11 27 32 REFUSED 4 2 3 2 2 2 2 7 1 3. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 4% 52% 28% 21% 29% 20% 14% Unfavorable 19 32 5 17 24 15 29 24 Hvn't hrd enough 53 61 43 52 54 53 48 60 REFUSED 2 3 - 3 1 3 3 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 23% 26% 28% 24% 15% 18% 17% 43% 30% Unfavorable 15 19 21 21 32 20 26 6 11 Hvn't hrd enough 60 53 48 53 50 59 55 47 58 REFUSED 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 4 1 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 39% 3% 82% 43% 35% 42% 35% 21% Cruz 50 90 11 41 57 44 58 64 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 - 1 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 9 4 7 13 6 11 5 12 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 46% 34% 42% 35% 26% 29% 28% 70% 44% Cruz 41 51 49 57 66 57 62 15 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 DK/NA 11 12 7 6 7 10 8 14 7 5. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 49% 86% 14% 40% 57% 42% 56% 64% Unfavorable 38 7 74 45 35 42 39 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 5 12 11 7 13 3 10 REFUSED 2 2 - 4 1 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 42% 51% 48% 57% 66% 56% 60% 15% 45% Unfavorable 44 36 42 35 27 34 31 68 35 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 9 6 6 7 7 13 19 REFUSED 2 2 2 2 1 4 2 4 - 6. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 30% 8% 60% 32% 29% 31% 29% 20% Unfavorable 19 32 4 16 24 14 23 23 Hvn't hrd enough 50 59 34 50 46 53 48 56 REFUSED 2 1 2 3 - 3 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 31% 29% 32% 30% 26% 22% 24% 38% 39% Unfavorable 16 19 21 15 28 19 23 5 15 Hvn't hrd enough 51 51 45 55 45 58 52 54 45 REFUSED 3 2 2 - 1 1 1 4 1 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 60% 89% 30% 54% 65% 54% 66% 73% Disapprove 29 4 61 32 25 32 28 17 DK/NA 12 7 9 13 10 13 6 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 52% 57% 62% 65% 74% 67% 70% 39% 49% Disapprove 30 29 32 26 21 23 22 46 31 DK/NA 19 14 6 9 5 10 8 14 20 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 52% 86% 19% 45% 58% 46% 55% 64% Disapprove 39 8 76 45 37 42 40 27 DK/NA 9 6 6 10 5 12 5 9 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 44% 57% 49% 58% 65% 55% 60% 27% 51% Disapprove 42 35 46 37 30 35 33 63 37 DK/NA 14 8 5 6 5 9 7 10 11 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 40% 56% 24% 39% 43% 38% 48% 40% Disapprove 30 14 52 31 31 29 29 24 DK/NA 30 30 24 29 26 33 23 36 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 30% 37% 38% 53% 47% 43% 45% 36% 33% Disapprove 30 29 34 28 29 24 26 44 31 DK/NA 40 34 28 19 25 33 29 20 36 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 47% 88% 3% 40% 51% 44% 57% 70% Disapprove 47 7 92 54 44 50 38 27 DK/NA 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 45% 50% 55% 65% 63% 64% 12% 31% Disapprove 59 47 46 41 32 33 32 79 63 DK/NA 6 7 4 4 3 4 4 9 6 11. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, or gun policy? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 23% 24% 15% 29% 27% 19% 27% 22% Taxes 8 10 7 7 8 9 8 5 Health care 23 15 33 21 20 25 19 24 Immigration 23 34 17 18 24 22 29 27 Gun policy 17 15 23 17 16 19 13 18 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 3 3 2 2 1 DK/NA 4 2 3 5 3 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 23% 26% 22% 19% 26% 23% 24% 16% 22% Taxes 8 9 8 7 6 6 6 10 11 Health care 26 20 23 23 18 23 21 28 23 Immigration 18 17 22 34 30 28 29 11 17 Gun policy 22 20 17 12 15 16 16 26 19 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 1 4 1 2 2 1 2 1 3 DK/NA 1 3 6 3 3 3 3 8 3
