August 1, 2018 - Cruz Has Small Lead In Tight Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Abbott Tops Valdez By 13 Points In Governor's Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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There are yawning party, gender and racial gaps as Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, 49 - 43 percent in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This compares to the results of a May 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Sen. Cruz topping O'Rourke 50 - 39 percent.

Today, Cruz leads 56 - 36 percent among men. Women back O'Rourke 49 - 43 percent. White voters back Cruz 61 - 31 percent. O'Rourke leads 81 - 14 percent among black voters and 52 - 40 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Cruz 89 - 5 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 90 - 5 percent. Independent voters are split 46 - 46 percent.

Texas voters approve 50 - 42 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 50 - 42 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke gets a 33 - 23 percent favorability rating, while 43 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him.

Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 26 percent of Texas voters say, as 23 percent list the economy, 18 percent cite health care and 13 percent point to the U.S. Supreme Court.

"U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has a slight, by no means overwhelming, lead. Congressman Beto O'Rourke has done a good job making the race competitive. With three months until Election Day, he is clearly in contention. A Democratic victory in the Lone Star state would be a serious blow to GOP hopes of keeping their U.S. Senate majority," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "O'Rourke makes a good impression on voters, but only about half the Texas electorate has formed an opinion of him. Sen. Cruz has a good favorability overall and is the much better known of the two men."

Texas voters say 61 - 33 percent that it is important that the Senate candidate they support shares their views on abortion. Democrats say 68 - 25 percent that it's important, while Republicans say 63 - 33 percent that it's important. Shared views are important to independent voters 57 - 39 percent.

Governor's Race

In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 51 - 38 percent, compared to a 53 - 34 percent Abbott lead in the May 30 Quinnipiac University poll.

Gov. Abbott leads 57 - 33 percent among men. Women are divided with 46 percent for Abbott and 43 percent for Valdez. White voters back Abbott 66 - 26 percent. Valdez leads 69 - 15 percent among black voters and 49 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters.

Abbott leads 91 - 2 percent among Republicans and 50 - 36 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Valdez 87 - 6 percent.

"Gov. Gregg Abbott holds a fairly comfortable double-digit lead," Brown added.

Texas voters approve 56 - 33 percent of the job Abbott is doing and give him a 51 - 32 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a 25 - 20 percent favorability rating, but 54 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion of her, virtually unchanged from May 30.

President Trump's Approval

Texas voters are divided on President Donald Trump as 46 percent approve of the job he is doing and 49 percent disapprove.

Republicans approve 84 - 12 percent. Disapproval is 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 52 - 43 percent among independent voters.

Texas voters approve 39 - 30 percent of the job U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is doing.

From July 26 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,118 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Valdez               38%     2%    87%    36%    33%    43%    29%    22%
Abbott               51     91      6     50     57     46     62     70
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 9      6      5     12      8      9      6      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Valdez               40%    43%    33%    36%    23%    29%    26%    69%    49%
Abbott               41     48     60     56     70     63     66     15     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      1      -      1      2      2      -      1
DK/NA                14      8      6      6      6      6      6     15     13
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            51%    84%    13%    50%    57%    45%    60%    67%
Unfavorable          32      3     67     33     27     37     31     18
Hvn't hrd enough     15     11     18     15     13     17      8     14
REFUSED               2      1      3      2      2      2      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            40%    46%    59%    57%    68%    59%    64%    21%    37%
Unfavorable          31     37     30     29     23     26     25     54     35
Hvn't hrd enough     29     14      7     12      8     14     11     18     25
REFUSED               -      3      3      3      1      1      1      8      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            25%     5%    57%    22%    24%    26%    22%    15%
Unfavorable          20     34      4     18     23     17     28     27
Hvn't hrd enough     54     59     38     58     51     56     48     55
REFUSED               2      2      1      3      2      1      2      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            23%    29%    25%    23%    20%    19%    19%    38%    28%
Unfavorable          12     19     23     25     28     27     27      6     10
Hvn't hrd enough     63     51     50     50     50     53     51     53     62
REFUSED               2      -      2      2      3      1      2      3      -
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             43%     5%    90%    46%    36%    49%    35%    26%
Cruz                 49     89      5     46     56     43     58     65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      -      1      1      1      1      2
DK/NA                 6      5      5      7      7      6      6      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             45%    48%    38%    42%    27%    34%    31%    81%    52%
Cruz                 41     47     55     52     67     56     61     14     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      1      -      -      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      -      1      1      2      2      -      1
DK/NA                10      5      6      4      5      7      6      4      6
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q11..........
                            Health        Suprm  Gun
                     Econ   care   Imgrtn Court  Policy
 
O'Rourke             27%    70%    34%    43%    53%
Cruz                 64     20     60     54     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      -      -
DK/NA                 7      9      4      3     10
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            50%    85%    13%    44%    55%    46%    55%    63%
Unfavorable          42     10     78     47     37     46     40     29
Hvn't hrd enough      7      4      8      8      7      7      4      7
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            42%    48%    55%    56%    63%    56%    59%    22%    45%
Unfavorable          45     47     39     38     32     37     34     69     43
Hvn't hrd enough     13      6      4      5      4      6      5      6     13
REFUSED               -      -      3      1      1      2      1      3      -
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            33%     8%    63%    36%    31%    35%    33%    22%
Unfavorable          23     44      3     18     29     17     33     33
Hvn't hrd enough     43     47     34     44     39     47     32     45
REFUSED               1      1      -      2      1      1      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            33%    38%    29%    33%    26%    29%    27%    42%    40%
Unfavorable          19     25     27     22     40     27     33      8      8
Hvn't hrd enough     48     37     43     44     34     44     39     48     52
REFUSED               -      -      1      1      -      1      1      2      -
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              56%    87%    20%    55%    62%    50%    62%    68%
Disapprove           33      6     68     33     29     37     31     20
DK/NA                11      8     12     12      9     13      7     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              47%    53%    62%    63%    68%    63%    65%    36%    44%
Disapprove           34     38     32     29     25     26     26     52     39
DK/NA                19     10      7      8      7     11      9     12     17
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              50%    83%    12%    47%    57%    43%    57%    62%
Disapprove           42      9     80     47     38     46     40     28
DK/NA                 8      8      7      6      5     11      4     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              42%    51%    54%    54%    64%    55%    59%    20%    44%
Disapprove           49     44     39     38     31     36     34     72     45
DK/NA                 9      5      7      8      5      9      7      8     11
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              39%    59%    19%    38%    45%    34%    44%    46%
Disapprove           30      9     56     30     27     33     32     24
DK/NA                30     32     26     31     27     34     24     30
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              33%    35%    44%    46%    51%    39%    45%    21%    39%
Disapprove           28     33     30     32     27     29     28     45     24
DK/NA                39     32     26     23     22     32     27     34     37
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              46%    84%     4%    43%    54%    39%    56%    68%
Disapprove           49     12     94     52     41     56     42     27
DK/NA                 5      4      1      5      4      6      2      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              35%    43%    54%    54%    68%    56%    62%    10%    32%
Disapprove           59     50     43     45     29     40     34     87     62
DK/NA                 6      7      3      2      4      4      4      3      6
 
 
 
11. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, the Supreme Court, or gun policy?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              23%    30%    13%    23%    28%    18%    20%    23%
Taxes                 4      5      4      3      5      3      6      4
Health care          18      8     33     18     15     22     15     18
Immigration          26     31     20     27     23     29     28     30
Supreme Court        13     13     13     12     15     11     20     12
Gun policy            9      8     12      8      9     10      6      6
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      2      3      5      3      3      3      2
DK/NA                 3      3      2      4      2      4      2      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              26%    29%    22%    14%    27%    17%    22%    16%    28%
Taxes                 5      6      4      3      5      4      5      6      3
Health care          16     13     20     25     12     21     17     25     22
Immigration          22     20     27     35     26     32     29     24     22
Supreme Court         7     16     14     14     18     13     16      7      9
Gun policy           17      8      7      4      7      5      6     15     12
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   5      4      2      2      2      3      2      5      4
DK/NA                 1      3      4      3      2      4      3      1      1
 
 
12. Is it important to you that the Senate candidate you vote for shares your views on the issue of abortion or not?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Important        61%    63%    68%    57%    57%    65%    61%    59%
No                   33     33     25     39     39     28     36     35
DK/NA                 5      4      7      5      4      7      3      6
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes/Important        59%    59%    65%    61%    55%    65%    60%    65%    61%
No                   37     39     29     31     41     29     35     23     35
DK/NA                 4      2      6      8      3      6      5     12      4
 
 
13. Will your vote in this year's election for United States Senator be more to express support for President Trump, more to express opposition to President Trump, or will President Trump not be an important factor in your vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Support              32%    64%     2%    23%    37%    27%    37%    46%
Opposition           30      4     67     27     24     36     25     19
Not important factor 36     30     28     48     37     34     36     31
DK/NA                 3      2      3      2      2      3      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Support              20%    29%    40%    39%    45%    39%    42%     9%    21%
Opposition           38     29     26     27     17     27     22     50     38
Not important factor 40     40     30     30     36     31     34     38     39
DK/NA                 2      2      3      3      1      3      2      3      2
 
 
14. Compared to past midterm elections for the U.S. House and Senate, how motivated would you say you are to vote in this year's midterm election; are you more motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More                 49%    45%    57%    50%    51%    48%    49%    45%
Less                  4      1      4      5      4      4      2      4
As usual             46     53     38     46     45     48     48     51
DK/NA                 1      -      1      -      1      -      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More                 49%    55%    52%    45%    47%    47%    47%    43%    54%
Less                  5      3      1      5      3      3      3      4      6
As usual             45     42     47     50     50     50     50     51     40
DK/NA                 1      -      -      -      1      -      -      2      -
 
 
15. Since President Trump's election, have you become more politically active, less politically active, or are you just as politically active as before?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More                 34%    36%    43%    28%    33%    36%    31%    41%
Less                  5      2      9      5      5      6      3      3
Same                 60     61     47     67     62     57     66     55
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      -      1      -      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More                 40%    32%    37%    32%    33%    38%    36%    30%    35%
Less                  5      5      5      7      3      3      3     11      8
Same                 55     64     57     60     64     57     61     59     57
DK/NA                 -      -      -      2      -      1      1      -      -