August 1, 2018 - Cruz Has Small Lead In Tight Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Abbott Tops Valdez By 13 Points In Governor's Race PDF format Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail There are yawning party, gender and racial gaps as Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz leads U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, 49 - 43 percent in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This compares to the results of a May 30 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Sen. Cruz topping O'Rourke 50 - 39 percent. Today, Cruz leads 56 - 36 percent among men. Women back O'Rourke 49 - 43 percent. White voters back Cruz 61 - 31 percent. O'Rourke leads 81 - 14 percent among black voters and 52 - 40 percent among Hispanic voters. Republicans back Cruz 89 - 5 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 90 - 5 percent. Independent voters are split 46 - 46 percent. Texas voters approve 50 - 42 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 50 - 42 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke gets a 33 - 23 percent favorability rating, while 43 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him. Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 26 percent of Texas voters say, as 23 percent list the economy, 18 percent cite health care and 13 percent point to the U.S. Supreme Court. "U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz has a slight, by no means overwhelming, lead. Congressman Beto O'Rourke has done a good job making the race competitive. With three months until Election Day, he is clearly in contention. A Democratic victory in the Lone Star state would be a serious blow to GOP hopes of keeping their U.S. Senate majority," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. "O'Rourke makes a good impression on voters, but only about half the Texas electorate has formed an opinion of him. Sen. Cruz has a good favorability overall and is the much better known of the two men." Texas voters say 61 - 33 percent that it is important that the Senate candidate they support shares their views on abortion. Democrats say 68 - 25 percent that it's important, while Republicans say 63 - 33 percent that it's important. Shared views are important to independent voters 57 - 39 percent. Governor's Race In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 51 - 38 percent, compared to a 53 - 34 percent Abbott lead in the May 30 Quinnipiac University poll. Gov. Abbott leads 57 - 33 percent among men. Women are divided with 46 percent for Abbott and 43 percent for Valdez. White voters back Abbott 66 - 26 percent. Valdez leads 69 - 15 percent among black voters and 49 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters. Abbott leads 91 - 2 percent among Republicans and 50 - 36 percent among independent voters. Democrats back Valdez 87 - 6 percent. "Gov. Gregg Abbott holds a fairly comfortable double-digit lead," Brown added. Texas voters approve 56 - 33 percent of the job Abbott is doing and give him a 51 - 32 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a 25 - 20 percent favorability rating, but 54 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion of her, virtually unchanged from May 30. President Trump's Approval Texas voters are divided on President Donald Trump as 46 percent approve of the job he is doing and 49 percent disapprove. Republicans approve 84 - 12 percent. Disapproval is 94 - 4 percent among Democrats and 52 - 43 percent among independent voters. Texas voters approve 39 - 30 percent of the job U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is doing. From July 26 - 31, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,118 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Valdez 38% 2% 87% 36% 33% 43% 29% 22% Abbott 51 91 6 50 57 46 62 70 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 9 6 5 12 8 9 6 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Valdez 40% 43% 33% 36% 23% 29% 26% 69% 49% Abbott 41 48 60 56 70 63 66 15 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 - 1 2 2 - 1 DK/NA 14 8 6 6 6 6 6 15 13 2. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 51% 84% 13% 50% 57% 45% 60% 67% Unfavorable 32 3 67 33 27 37 31 18 Hvn't hrd enough 15 11 18 15 13 17 8 14 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 40% 46% 59% 57% 68% 59% 64% 21% 37% Unfavorable 31 37 30 29 23 26 25 54 35 Hvn't hrd enough 29 14 7 12 8 14 11 18 25 REFUSED - 3 3 3 1 1 1 8 2 3. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 25% 5% 57% 22% 24% 26% 22% 15% Unfavorable 20 34 4 18 23 17 28 27 Hvn't hrd enough 54 59 38 58 51 56 48 55 REFUSED 2 2 1 3 2 1 2 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 23% 29% 25% 23% 20% 19% 19% 38% 28% Unfavorable 12 19 23 25 28 27 27 6 10 Hvn't hrd enough 63 51 50 50 50 53 51 53 62 REFUSED 2 - 2 2 3 1 2 3 - 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 43% 5% 90% 46% 36% 49% 35% 26% Cruz 49 89 5 46 56 43 58 65 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 1 2 DK/NA 6 5 5 7 7 6 6 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 45% 48% 38% 42% 27% 34% 31% 81% 52% Cruz 41 47 55 52 67 56 61 14 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 - - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 - 1 1 2 2 - 1 DK/NA 10 5 6 4 5 7 6 4 6 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q11.......... Health Suprm Gun Econ care Imgrtn Court Policy O'Rourke 27% 70% 34% 43% 53% Cruz 64 20 60 54 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 7 9 4 3 10 5. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 85% 13% 44% 55% 46% 55% 63% Unfavorable 42 10 78 47 37 46 40 29 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 8 8 7 7 4 7 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 42% 48% 55% 56% 63% 56% 59% 22% 45% Unfavorable 45 47 39 38 32 37 34 69 43 Hvn't hrd enough 13 6 4 5 4 6 5 6 13 REFUSED - - 3 1 1 2 1 3 - 6. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 33% 8% 63% 36% 31% 35% 33% 22% Unfavorable 23 44 3 18 29 17 33 33 Hvn't hrd enough 43 47 34 44 39 47 32 45 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 33% 38% 29% 33% 26% 29% 27% 42% 40% Unfavorable 19 25 27 22 40 27 33 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 48 37 43 44 34 44 39 48 52 REFUSED - - 1 1 - 1 1 2 - 7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 56% 87% 20% 55% 62% 50% 62% 68% Disapprove 33 6 68 33 29 37 31 20 DK/NA 11 8 12 12 9 13 7 11 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 47% 53% 62% 63% 68% 63% 65% 36% 44% Disapprove 34 38 32 29 25 26 26 52 39 DK/NA 19 10 7 8 7 11 9 12 17 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 50% 83% 12% 47% 57% 43% 57% 62% Disapprove 42 9 80 47 38 46 40 28 DK/NA 8 8 7 6 5 11 4 10 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 42% 51% 54% 54% 64% 55% 59% 20% 44% Disapprove 49 44 39 38 31 36 34 72 45 DK/NA 9 5 7 8 5 9 7 8 11 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 39% 59% 19% 38% 45% 34% 44% 46% Disapprove 30 9 56 30 27 33 32 24 DK/NA 30 32 26 31 27 34 24 30 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 33% 35% 44% 46% 51% 39% 45% 21% 39% Disapprove 28 33 30 32 27 29 28 45 24 DK/NA 39 32 26 23 22 32 27 34 37 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 46% 84% 4% 43% 54% 39% 56% 68% Disapprove 49 12 94 52 41 56 42 27 DK/NA 5 4 1 5 4 6 2 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 43% 54% 54% 68% 56% 62% 10% 32% Disapprove 59 50 43 45 29 40 34 87 62 DK/NA 6 7 3 2 4 4 4 3 6 11. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, the Supreme Court, or gun policy? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 23% 30% 13% 23% 28% 18% 20% 23% Taxes 4 5 4 3 5 3 6 4 Health care 18 8 33 18 15 22 15 18 Immigration 26 31 20 27 23 29 28 30 Supreme Court 13 13 13 12 15 11 20 12 Gun policy 9 8 12 8 9 10 6 6 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 2 3 5 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 3 3 2 4 2 4 2 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 26% 29% 22% 14% 27% 17% 22% 16% 28% Taxes 5 6 4 3 5 4 5 6 3 Health care 16 13 20 25 12 21 17 25 22 Immigration 22 20 27 35 26 32 29 24 22 Supreme Court 7 16 14 14 18 13 16 7 9 Gun policy 17 8 7 4 7 5 6 15 12 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 5 4 2 2 2 3 2 5 4 DK/NA 1 3 4 3 2 4 3 1 1 12. Is it important to you that the Senate candidate you vote for shares your views on the issue of abortion or not? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Yes/Important 61% 63% 68% 57% 57% 65% 61% 59% No 33 33 25 39 39 28 36 35 DK/NA 5 4 7 5 4 7 3 6 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Yes/Important 59% 59% 65% 61% 55% 65% 60% 65% 61% No 37 39 29 31 41 29 35 23 35 DK/NA 4 2 6 8 3 6 5 12 4 13. Will your vote in this year's election for United States Senator be more to express support for President Trump, more to express opposition to President Trump, or will President Trump not be an important factor in your vote? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Support 32% 64% 2% 23% 37% 27% 37% 46% Opposition 30 4 67 27 24 36 25 19 Not important factor 36 30 28 48 37 34 36 31 DK/NA 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Support 20% 29% 40% 39% 45% 39% 42% 9% 21% Opposition 38 29 26 27 17 27 22 50 38 Not important factor 40 40 30 30 36 31 34 38 39 DK/NA 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 3 2 14. Compared to past midterm elections for the U.S. House and Senate, how motivated would you say you are to vote in this year's midterm election; are you more motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More 49% 45% 57% 50% 51% 48% 49% 45% Less 4 1 4 5 4 4 2 4 As usual 46 53 38 46 45 48 48 51 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More 49% 55% 52% 45% 47% 47% 47% 43% 54% Less 5 3 1 5 3 3 3 4 6 As usual 45 42 47 50 50 50 50 51 40 DK/NA 1 - - - 1 - - 2 - 15. Since President Trump's election, have you become more politically active, less politically active, or are you just as politically active as before? WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More 34% 36% 43% 28% 33% 36% 31% 41% Less 5 2 9 5 5 6 3 3 Same 60 61 47 67 62 57 66 55 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 - 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More 40% 32% 37% 32% 33% 38% 36% 30% 35% Less 5 5 5 7 3 3 3 11 8 Same 55 64 57 60 64 57 61 59 57 DK/NA - - - 2 - 1 1 - -
