September 18, 2018 - Cruz Has 9-Point Likely Voter Lead In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Gets A Split 49 - 49 Percent Job Approval Score Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O'Rourke backers.

Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 - 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 - 32 percent. O'Rourke leads 97 - 3 percent among black voters and 54 - 45 percent among Hispanic voters.

Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 94 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O'Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz.

Texas likely voters approve 53 - 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 - 43 percent favorability rating.

O'Rourke gets a divided 43 - 42 percent favorability rating.

"The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O'Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Congressman O'Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely voters like Sen. Cruz better."

Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 27 percent of Texas likely voters say, as 21 percent list health care, 16 percent cite the U.S. Supreme Court and 15 percent say the economy.

Governor's Race

There is a wide racial gap in the Texas governor's race, as Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 58 - 39 percent among likely voters.

Gov. Abbott leads 69 - 28 percent among white voters as Valdez leads 83 - 16 percent among black voters. Hispanic voters are divided with 49 percent for Abbott and 45 percent for Valdez.

Texas likely voters approve 62 - 34 percent of the job Abbott is doing and give him a 60 - 33 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a split 28 - 28 percent favorability rating, and 42 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion of her.

"Gov. Greg Abbott is highly regarded by Texas voters and appears on the way to a landslide reelection. His lead over Sheriff Lupe Valdez is just under 20 points among likely voters and the governor gets good grades on his job performance," Brown said.

President Trump's Approval

Texas likely voters are split 49 - 49 percent on President Donald Trump's job approval.

Republicans approve 86 - 12 percent. Disapproval is 93 - 6 percent among Democrats and 58 - 40 percent among independent voters.

Texas voters approve 49 - 36 percent of the job U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is doing.

From September 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 807 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lupe Valdez the Democrat or more toward Greg Abbott the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Valdez               39%     4%    90%    40%    33%    45%    37%    19%
Abbott               58     95      9     54     65     52     61     78
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 3      1      1      5      2      3      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Valdez               52%    41%    36%    37%    24%    33%    28%    83%    45%
Abbott               47     53     64     58     73     65     69     16     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -      2
DK/NA                 1      5      1      4      3      3      3      1      4
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Valdez        Abbott
 
Mind made up         89%    87%           89%
Might change         10     12             9
DK/NA                 1      1             2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            28%     4%    63%    29%    23%    33%    29%    13%
Unfavorable          28     48      2     22     31     25     30     41
Hvn't hrd enough     42     46     34     46     43     41     40     43
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      3      1      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            41%    28%    25%    28%    16%    26%    21%    57%    34%
Unfavorable          23     20     33     27     38     31     35      2     21
Hvn't hrd enough     36     51     40     43     42     40     41     40     44
REFUSED               -      1      2      2      3      2      3      -      1
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            60%    93%    19%    54%    66%    54%    58%    79%
Unfavorable          33      4     66     41     27     38     37     14
Hvn't hrd enough      7      3     14      5      7      7      4      6
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            51%    55%    66%    60%    71%    65%    68%    31%    52%
Unfavorable          29     42     30     33     22     30     26     65     33
Hvn't hrd enough     21      3      4      6      7      4      5      4     14
REFUSED               -      -      -      2      -      1      1      -      1
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Beto O'Rourke the Democrat or more toward Ted Cruz the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             45%     6%    94%    51%    42%    48%    42%    21%
Cruz                 54     94      4     47     57     50     55     78
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      1      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             57%    51%    41%    42%    29%    35%    32%    97%    54%
Cruz                 41     49     58     55     70     63     66      3     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -      1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      -      -      2      1      2      1      -      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q7
                            Health        Suprm  Gun
                     Econ   care   Imgrtn Court  Policy
 
O'Rourke             32%    81%    33%    50%    31%
Cruz                 66     17     67     48     68
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      1      -      2      1
 
 
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    O'Rourke      Cruz
 
Mind made up         93%    92%           94%
Might change          7      8             6
DK/NA                 -      -             1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            43%    10%    82%    51%    41%    45%    42%    24%
Unfavorable          42     74      4     34     46     38     47     57
Hvn't hrd enough     14     14     14     14     12     16     10     17
REFUSED               1      3      -      1      2      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            49%    51%    37%    43%    30%    37%    33%    84%    48%
Unfavorable          35     34     50     42     57     47     52      2     35
Hvn't hrd enough     16     13     11     14     11     14     13     13     16
REFUSED               -      1      2      1      2      2      2      -      1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            52%    91%     6%    44%    55%    49%    54%    75%
Unfavorable          43      8     84     53     42     45     44     23
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      8      2      2      5      1      2
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      2      1      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            42%    45%    56%    54%    67%    61%    64%     5%    44%
Unfavorable          53     50     39     42     31     37     34     88     44
Hvn't hrd enough      5      3      4      3      1      2      1      6     10
REFUSED               -      2      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
 
 
7. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, the Supreme Court, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              15%    20%     7%    13%    18%    12%    18%    12%
Taxes                 4      5      2      5      6      3      2      7
Health care          21      6     42     21     17     25     18     14
Immigration          27     35     18     28     28     27     25     32
Supreme Court        16     15     18     15     14     18     21     16
Gun policy           10     11      9      9     11      9      8     11
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  3      -      4      5      3      3      3      2
DK/NA                 4      6      1      3      4      4      4      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              15%    14%    14%    15%    18%    13%    15%    13%    16%
Taxes                 3      4      6      3      6      4      5      1      6
Health care          19     18     21     25     15     17     16     46     20
Immigration          27     31     29     25     27     29     28     24     28
Supreme Court        11     10     19     19     15     22     19      8     11
Gun policy           17     15      7      5     13      6     10      4     14
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)  7      4      2      1      2      3      2      2      3
DK/NA                 -      4      3      6      4      5      4      2      3
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              62%    92%    23%    56%    69%    55%    61%    79%
Disapprove           34      5     73     39     28     41     36     17
DK/NA                 4      3      4      5      3      5      3      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              47%    56%    70%    60%    74%    65%    70%    35%    51%
Disapprove           44     38     28     38     23     31     27     61     42
DK/NA                 9      6      3      2      2      4      3      3      6
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              53%    89%     8%    45%    56%    49%    53%    75%
Disapprove           44      7     90     52     41     47     43     23
DK/NA                 3      4      2      3      3      4      4      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              39%    49%    58%    55%    67%    59%    63%     9%    46%
Disapprove           58     49     39     43     30     37     34     91     50
DK/NA                 3      1      3      2      3      4      3      -      4
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              49%    76%    22%    40%    51%    46%    51%    67%
Disapprove           36     10     63     41     34     37     36     20
DK/NA                16     14     14     19     15     17     13     13
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              35%    45%    54%    53%    60%    57%    58%    25%    38%
Disapprove           43     36     35     34     27     30     29     54     40
DK/NA                22     19     11     12     13     13     13     21     21
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              49%    86%     6%    40%    54%    44%    51%    76%
Disapprove           49     12     93     58     44     54     47     23
DK/NA                 1      2      1      2      1      1      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              35%    42%    55%    52%    67%    59%    63%     4%    33%
Disapprove           64     57     43     47     32     40     36     96     65
DK/NA                 1      1      2      1      2      1      2      -      1
 
 
13. Since President Trump's election, have you become more politically active, less politically active, or are you just as politically active as before?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More                 35%    29%    48%    34%    32%    38%    30%    35%
Less                  3      3      3      2      3      2      1      -
Same                 62     68     49     64     65     59     69     64
DK/NA                 -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
More                 49%    35%    29%    35%    30%    34%    32%    40%    37%
Less                  7      2      1      4      1      -      1      5      8
Same                 44     63     69     61     68     65     67     54     55
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      1      -      -      -      -