September 18, 2018 - Cruz Has 9-Point Likely Voter Lead In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Trump Gets A Split 49 - 49 Percent Job Approval Score PDF format Sample and Methodology detail Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz has a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead over U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, his Democratic challenger, in the Texas Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. This is the first survey of likely voters in this race by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, and can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters. Among Texas likely voters who choose a candidate, 93 percent say their mind is made up. That includes 94 percent of Cruz backers and 92 percent of O'Rourke backers. Women are divided as 50 percent back Cruz and 48 percent back O'Rourke. Men back Cruz 57 - 42 percent. White voters back Cruz 66 - 32 percent. O'Rourke leads 97 - 3 percent among black voters and 54 - 45 percent among Hispanic voters. Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent, as Democrats go to O'Rourke 94 - 4 percent. Independent voters are divided with 51 percent for O'Rourke and 47 percent for Cruz. Texas likely voters approve 53 - 44 percent of the job Cruz is doing and give him a 52 - 43 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke gets a divided 43 - 42 percent favorability rating. "The Texas U.S. Senate race between Sen. Ted Cruz and Congressman Beto O'Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "Congressman O'Rourke may be drawing big crowds and media attention, but Texas likely voters like Sen. Cruz better." Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 27 percent of Texas likely voters say, as 21 percent list health care, 16 percent cite the U.S. Supreme Court and 15 percent say the economy. Governor's Race There is a wide racial gap in the Texas governor's race, as Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 58 - 39 percent among likely voters. Gov. Abbott leads 69 - 28 percent among white voters as Valdez leads 83 - 16 percent among black voters. Hispanic voters are divided with 49 percent for Abbott and 45 percent for Valdez. Texas likely voters approve 62 - 34 percent of the job Abbott is doing and give him a 60 - 33 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a split 28 - 28 percent favorability rating, and 42 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion of her. "Gov. Greg Abbott is highly regarded by Texas voters and appears on the way to a landslide reelection. His lead over Sheriff Lupe Valdez is just under 20 points among likely voters and the governor gets good grades on his job performance," Brown said. President Trump's Approval Texas likely voters are split 49 - 49 percent on President Donald Trump's job approval. Republicans approve 86 - 12 percent. Disapproval is 93 - 6 percent among Democrats and 58 - 40 percent among independent voters. Texas voters approve 49 - 36 percent of the job U.S. Sen. John Cornyn is doing. From September 11 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 807 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts nationwide public opinion surveys, and statewide polls in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and Texas as a public service and for research. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lupe Valdez the Democrat or more toward Greg Abbott the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Valdez 39% 4% 90% 40% 33% 45% 37% 19% Abbott 58 95 9 54 65 52 61 78 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 3 1 1 5 2 3 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Valdez 52% 41% 36% 37% 24% 33% 28% 83% 45% Abbott 47 53 64 58 73 65 69 16 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - - 2 DK/NA 1 5 1 4 3 3 3 1 4 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Valdez Abbott Mind made up 89% 87% 89% Might change 10 12 9 DK/NA 1 1 2 2. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 28% 4% 63% 29% 23% 33% 29% 13% Unfavorable 28 48 2 22 31 25 30 41 Hvn't hrd enough 42 46 34 46 43 41 40 43 REFUSED 2 1 1 3 3 1 2 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 41% 28% 25% 28% 16% 26% 21% 57% 34% Unfavorable 23 20 33 27 38 31 35 2 21 Hvn't hrd enough 36 51 40 43 42 40 41 40 44 REFUSED - 1 2 2 3 2 3 - 1 3. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 60% 93% 19% 54% 66% 54% 58% 79% Unfavorable 33 4 66 41 27 38 37 14 Hvn't hrd enough 7 3 14 5 7 7 4 6 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 51% 55% 66% 60% 71% 65% 68% 31% 52% Unfavorable 29 42 30 33 22 30 26 65 33 Hvn't hrd enough 21 3 4 6 7 4 5 4 14 REFUSED - - - 2 - 1 1 - 1 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Beto O'Rourke the Democrat or more toward Ted Cruz the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 45% 6% 94% 51% 42% 48% 42% 21% Cruz 54 94 4 47 57 50 55 78 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - - 1 - DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 57% 51% 41% 42% 29% 35% 32% 97% 54% Cruz 41 49 58 55 70 63 66 3 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 - - - DK/NA 1 - - 2 1 2 1 - 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q7 Health Suprm Gun Econ care Imgrtn Court Policy O'Rourke 32% 81% 33% 50% 31% Cruz 66 17 67 48 68 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - - DK/NA 2 1 - 2 1 4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot O'Rourke Cruz Mind made up 93% 92% 94% Might change 7 8 6 DK/NA - - 1 5. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 43% 10% 82% 51% 41% 45% 42% 24% Unfavorable 42 74 4 34 46 38 47 57 Hvn't hrd enough 14 14 14 14 12 16 10 17 REFUSED 1 3 - 1 2 1 1 2 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 49% 51% 37% 43% 30% 37% 33% 84% 48% Unfavorable 35 34 50 42 57 47 52 2 35 Hvn't hrd enough 16 13 11 14 11 14 13 13 16 REFUSED - 1 2 1 2 2 2 - 1 6. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 52% 91% 6% 44% 55% 49% 54% 75% Unfavorable 43 8 84 53 42 45 44 23 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 8 2 2 5 1 2 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 2 1 1 - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 42% 45% 56% 54% 67% 61% 64% 5% 44% Unfavorable 53 50 39 42 31 37 34 88 44 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 4 3 1 2 1 6 10 REFUSED - 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 7. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, the Supreme Court, or gun policy? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 15% 20% 7% 13% 18% 12% 18% 12% Taxes 4 5 2 5 6 3 2 7 Health care 21 6 42 21 17 25 18 14 Immigration 27 35 18 28 28 27 25 32 Supreme Court 16 15 18 15 14 18 21 16 Gun policy 10 11 9 9 11 9 8 11 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 3 - 4 5 3 3 3 2 DK/NA 4 6 1 3 4 4 4 5 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 15% 14% 14% 15% 18% 13% 15% 13% 16% Taxes 3 4 6 3 6 4 5 1 6 Health care 19 18 21 25 15 17 16 46 20 Immigration 27 31 29 25 27 29 28 24 28 Supreme Court 11 10 19 19 15 22 19 8 11 Gun policy 17 15 7 5 13 6 10 4 14 SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 7 4 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 DK/NA - 4 3 6 4 5 4 2 3 8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Abbott is handling his job as governor? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 62% 92% 23% 56% 69% 55% 61% 79% Disapprove 34 5 73 39 28 41 36 17 DK/NA 4 3 4 5 3 5 3 4 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 47% 56% 70% 60% 74% 65% 70% 35% 51% Disapprove 44 38 28 38 23 31 27 61 42 DK/NA 9 6 3 2 2 4 3 3 6 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ted Cruz is handling his job as United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 53% 89% 8% 45% 56% 49% 53% 75% Disapprove 44 7 90 52 41 47 43 23 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 3 4 4 3 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 39% 49% 58% 55% 67% 59% 63% 9% 46% Disapprove 58 49 39 43 30 37 34 91 50 DK/NA 3 1 3 2 3 4 3 - 4 10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Cornyn is handling his job as United States Senator? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 49% 76% 22% 40% 51% 46% 51% 67% Disapprove 36 10 63 41 34 37 36 20 DK/NA 16 14 14 19 15 17 13 13 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 45% 54% 53% 60% 57% 58% 25% 38% Disapprove 43 36 35 34 27 30 29 54 40 DK/NA 22 19 11 12 13 13 13 21 21 11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 49% 86% 6% 40% 54% 44% 51% 76% Disapprove 49 12 93 58 44 54 47 23 DK/NA 1 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 35% 42% 55% 52% 67% 59% 63% 4% 33% Disapprove 64 57 43 47 32 40 36 96 65 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 - 1 13. Since President Trump's election, have you become more politically active, less politically active, or are you just as politically active as before? LIKELY VOTERS.............................................. WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No More 35% 29% 48% 34% 32% 38% 30% 35% Less 3 3 3 2 3 2 1 - Same 62 68 49 64 65 59 69 64 DK/NA - - - - - - - - AGE IN YRS.............. WHITE..... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp More 49% 35% 29% 35% 30% 34% 32% 40% 37% Less 7 2 1 4 1 - 1 5 8 Same 44 63 69 61 68 65 67 54 55 DK/NA - - - 1 1 - - - -
