October 11, 2018 - O'Rourke Stalls 9 Points Down In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Up 20 Points In Governor's Race PDF format Trend Information Sample and Methodology detail The gender gap widens a little, but U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic challenger in the Texas Senate race, gains no ground as Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. Men back Sen. Cruz 62 - 37 percent as women tip to O'Rourke 52 - 46 percent. This compares to a 54 - 45 percent Cruz likely voter lead in a September 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, with men backing Cruz 57 - 42 percent and women divided, going 50 percent for Cruz and 48 percent for O'Rourke. Today, O'Rourke leads 93 - 7 percent among Democrats and 56 - 42 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent. O'Rourke leads 84 - 10 percent among black voters and 61 - 37 percent among Hispanic voters. White voters back Cruz 69 - 30 percent. Among Texas likely voters who name a U.S. Senate candidate, 96 percent say their mind is made up. Cruz has a 52 - 44 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke has a divided 45 - 47 percent favorability rating. "Is the Beto bubble bursting or just hissing away with a slow leak? With less than four weeks until Election Day, Congressman Beto O'Rourke has hit a wall and remains the same nine points behind Sen. Ted Cruz as he was when Quinnipiac University polled the race last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. "The election is far from over, but Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose. That is even more unlikely since 97 percent of Cruz voters say they are sure they won't change their minds." "O'Rourke may be attracting massive crowds, but Cruz has a better favorability rating," Brown added. Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 26 percent of Texas likely voters say, as 19 percent list the economy, 17 percent cite health care and 16 percent point to the U.S. Supreme Court. A Senate candidate who shares their values is most important to 45 percent of Texas likely voters, as 28 percent most want a candidate who is honest and 19 percent most want someone who cares about average people. Governor's Race In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 58 - 38 percent among likely voters. Gov. Abbott leads 72 - 26 percent among white voters as Valdez leads 77 - 14 percent among black voters. Hispanic voters are divided with 50 percent for Valdez and 46 percent for Abbott. Among voters who name a candidate for governor, 92 percent say their mind is made up. Texas likely voters give Abbott a 62 - 32 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a split 31 - 29 percent favorability rating, and 39 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion of her. President Trump's Approval Texas likely voters approve 51 - 46 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 93 - 6 percent. Disapproval is 91 - 6 percent among Democrats and 58 - 38 percent among independent voters. From October 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 730 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, including the design effect. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues. Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lupe Valdez the Democrat or more toward Greg Abbott the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Valdez 38% 3% 86% 45% 29% 47% 32% 18% Abbott 58 96 9 49 68 48 66 80 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - - 1 DK/NA 4 1 4 5 3 5 1 1 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Valdez 17% 34% 26% 77% 50% Abbott 81 65 72 14 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 - - DK/NA 1 1 1 10 4 1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1 Tot Valdez Abbott Mind made up 92% 88% 94% Might change 7 8 6 DK/NA 1 3 - 2. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 31% 4% 70% 34% 24% 37% 25% 16% Unfavorable 29 48 5 25 35 23 36 39 Hvn't hrd enough 39 45 24 40 40 38 38 43 REFUSED 1 2 2 - 1 2 1 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 14% 26% 21% 56% 46% Unfavorable 46 28 37 10 17 Hvn't hrd enough 39 43 41 34 35 REFUSED 1 2 2 - 3 3. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 62% 95% 19% 56% 69% 56% 65% 79% Unfavorable 32 3 70 38 25 37 33 15 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 7 4 4 4 1 4 REFUSED 2 - 5 2 1 3 1 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 77% 66% 71% 43% 51% Unfavorable 19 30 25 46 44 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 9 - REFUSED 1 2 2 2 5 4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Beto O'Rourke the Democrat or more toward Ted Cruz the Republican? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No O'Rourke 45% 6% 93% 56% 37% 52% 40% 19% Cruz 54 94 7 42 62 46 60 80 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 2 - 1 2 2 2 1 1 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp O'Rourke 23% 37% 30% 84% 61% Cruz 77 62 69 10 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 1 1 1 6 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q7 Health Suprm Econ care Imgrtn Court O'Rourke 33% 79% 34% 46% Cruz 65 19 65 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - DK/NA 2 2 2 - MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY IN HOW TO VOTE Q8 Shares Honest Values Cares O'Rourke 52% 27% 67% Cruz 46 71 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - DK/NA 2 2 2 4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? LIKELY VOTERS................ CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4.......... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4 Tot O'Rourke Cruz Mind made up 96% 95% 97% Might change 3 4 2 DK/NA 1 1 1 5. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 10% 91% 56% 37% 53% 41% 24% Unfavorable 47 83 4 37 53 40 53 69 Hvn't hrd enough 7 6 4 6 8 6 5 7 REFUSED 1 2 1 - 2 1 2 - WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 25% 40% 33% 83% 58% Unfavorable 69 53 60 9 33 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 6 8 6 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 3 6. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Favorable 52% 91% 6% 41% 59% 46% 57% 75% Unfavorable 44 7 90 54 36 52 42 22 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 2 4 4 1 - 1 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Favorable 70% 60% 65% 13% 40% Unfavorable 27 39 33 81 56 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - - 6 3 REFUSED 2 1 2 - 1 7. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, the Supreme Court, or gun policy? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Economy 19% 18% 15% 21% 21% 17% 15% 19% Taxes 5 6 6 5 6 4 3 4 Health care 17 6 27 21 13 20 20 8 Immigration 26 33 19 24 26 26 28 32 Supreme Court 16 19 17 15 15 17 18 18 Gun policy 8 7 8 9 9 8 7 7 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 6 DK/NA 4 5 2 1 5 4 4 6 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Economy 20% 14% 17% 26% 16% Taxes 4 3 3 5 5 Health care 12 17 14 35 11 Immigration 29 32 30 6 33 Supreme Court 16 19 18 14 18 Gun policy 8 8 8 9 10 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 7 4 5 3 4 DK/NA 5 4 5 2 3 8. Thinking about who to vote for in the election for United States Senator, which of the following is most important to you: is it someone who is honest, someone who shares your values, someone who cares about average people, someone who is likeable, or someone who is inspiring? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Honest 28% 22% 34% 31% 26% 30% 26% 23% Shares values 45 62 31 35 48 42 53 54 Cares about people 19 12 24 26 19 20 17 14 Likeable 2 1 2 2 1 3 - 1 Inspiring 3 1 3 3 2 3 2 3 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 3 1 1 2 DK/NA 1 2 3 - 1 2 1 2 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Honest 22% 26% 24% 47% 28% Shares values 56 53 54 21 38 Cares about people 15 16 15 23 24 Likeable - 1 1 5 3 Inspiring 3 2 3 1 2 SOMETHING ELSE(VOL) 3 - 1 2 4 DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president? LIKELY VOTERS........................................ WHITE...... COLLEGE DEG Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No Approve 51% 93% 6% 38% 60% 43% 56% 75% Disapprove 46 6 91 58 37 54 41 21 DK/NA 3 1 3 4 3 3 3 4 WHITE..... Men Wom Wht Blk Hsp Approve 73% 58% 65% 5% 43% Disapprove 24 39 32 90 57 DK/NA 3 4 3 5 -
