October 11, 2018 - O'Rourke Stalls 9 Points Down In Texas Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Up 20 Points In Governor's Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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The gender gap widens a little, but U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic challenger in the Texas Senate race, gains no ground as Republican incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz holds a 54 - 45 percent likely voter lead, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Men back Sen. Cruz 62 - 37 percent as women tip to O'Rourke 52 - 46 percent.

This compares to a 54 - 45 percent Cruz likely voter lead in a September 18 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll, with men backing Cruz 57 - 42 percent and women divided, going 50 percent for Cruz and 48 percent for O'Rourke.

Today, O'Rourke leads 93 - 7 percent among Democrats and 56 - 42 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Cruz 94 - 6 percent.

O'Rourke leads 84 - 10 percent among black voters and 61 - 37 percent among Hispanic voters. White voters back Cruz 69 - 30 percent.

Among Texas likely voters who name a U.S. Senate candidate, 96 percent say their mind is made up.

Cruz has a 52 - 44 percent favorability rating. O'Rourke has a divided 45 - 47 percent favorability rating.

"Is the Beto bubble bursting or just hissing away with a slow leak? With less than four weeks until Election Day, Congressman Beto O'Rourke has hit a wall and remains the same nine points behind Sen. Ted Cruz as he was when Quinnipiac University polled the race last month," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"The election is far from over, but Sen. Cruz would have to suffer a major collapse for him to lose. That is even more unlikely since 97 percent of Cruz voters say they are sure they won't change their minds."

"O'Rourke may be attracting massive crowds, but Cruz has a better favorability rating," Brown added.

Immigration is the most important issue in their U.S. Senate vote, 26 percent of Texas likely voters say, as 19 percent list the economy, 17 percent cite health care and 16 percent point to the U.S. Supreme Court.

A Senate candidate who shares their values is most important to 45 percent of Texas likely voters, as 28 percent most want a candidate who is honest and 19 percent most want someone who cares about average people.

Governor's Race

In the Texas governor's race, Republican incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott leads former Dallas County Sheriff Lupe Valdez 58 - 38 percent among likely voters.

Gov. Abbott leads 72 - 26 percent among white voters as Valdez leads 77 - 14 percent among black voters. Hispanic voters are divided with 50 percent for Valdez and 46 percent for Abbott.

Among voters who name a candidate for governor, 92 percent say their mind is made up.

Texas likely voters give Abbott a 62 - 32 percent favorability rating. Valdez gets a split 31 - 29 percent favorability rating, and 39 percent of voters don't know enough to form an opinion of her.

President Trump's Approval

Texas likely voters approve 51 - 46 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing.

Republicans approve 93 - 6 percent. Disapproval is 91 - 6 percent among Democrats and 58 - 38 percent among independent voters.

From October 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 730 Texas likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Lupe Valdez the Democrat and Greg Abbott the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Lupe Valdez the Democrat or more toward Greg Abbott the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Valdez               38%     3%    86%    45%    29%    47%    32%    18%
Abbott               58     96      9     49     68     48     66     80
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      -      1
DK/NA                 4      1      4      5      3      5      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Valdez               17%    34%    26%    77%    50%
Abbott               81     65     72     14     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      1     10      4
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Valdez        Abbott
 
Mind made up         92%    88%           94%
Might change          7      8             6
DK/NA                 1      3             -
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Lupe Valdez favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            31%     4%    70%    34%    24%    37%    25%    16%
Unfavorable          29     48      5     25     35     23     36     39
Hvn't hrd enough     39     45     24     40     40     38     38     43
REFUSED               1      2      2      -      1      2      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            14%    26%    21%    56%    46%
Unfavorable          46     28     37     10     17
Hvn't hrd enough     39     43     41     34     35
REFUSED               1      2      2      -      3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Greg Abbott favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            62%    95%    19%    56%    69%    56%    65%    79%
Unfavorable          32      3     70     38     25     37     33     15
Hvn't hrd enough      4      1      7      4      4      4      1      4
REFUSED               2      -      5      2      1      3      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            77%    66%    71%    43%    51%
Unfavorable          19     30     25     46     44
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      2      9      -
REFUSED               1      2      2      2      5
 
 
4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Beto O'Rourke the Democrat or more toward Ted Cruz the Republican?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             45%     6%    93%    56%    37%    52%    40%    19%
Cruz                 54     94      7     42     62     46     60     80
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      -      1      2      2      2      1      1
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             23%    37%    30%    84%    61%
Cruz                 77     62     69     10     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 1      1      1      6      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE IN HOW TO VOTE Q7
                            Health        Suprm
                     Econ   care   Imgrtn Court
 
O'Rourke             33%    79%    34%    46%
Cruz                 65     19     65     54
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      2      2      -
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY IN HOW TO VOTE Q8
                            Shares
                     Honest Values Cares
 
O'Rourke             52%    27%    67%
Cruz                 46     71     31
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
4a. (If candidate chosen q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS................
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q4..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    O'Rourke      Cruz
 
Mind made up         96%    95%           97%
Might change          3      4             2
DK/NA                 1      1             1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            45%    10%    91%    56%    37%    53%    41%    24%
Unfavorable          47     83      4     37     53     40     53     69
Hvn't hrd enough      7      6      4      6      8      6      5      7
REFUSED               1      2      1      -      2      1      2      -
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            25%    40%    33%    83%    58%
Unfavorable          69     53     60      9     33
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      6      8      6
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      3
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            52%    91%     6%    41%    59%    46%    57%    75%
Unfavorable          44      7     90     54     36     52     42     22
Hvn't hrd enough      3      2      2      4      4      1      -      1
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      1      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            70%    60%    65%    13%    40%
Unfavorable          27     39     33     81     56
Hvn't hrd enough      1      -      -      6      3
REFUSED               2      1      2      -      1
 
 
7. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote in this year's election for United States Senator: the economy, taxes, health care, immigration, the Supreme Court, or gun policy?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Economy              19%    18%    15%    21%    21%    17%    15%    19%
Taxes                 5      6      6      5      6      4      3      4
Health care          17      6     27     21     13     20     20      8
Immigration          26     33     19     24     26     26     28     32
Supreme Court        16     19     17     15     15     17     18     18
Gun policy            8      7      8      9      9      8      7      7
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   4      5      5      4      5      4      4      6
DK/NA                 4      5      2      1      5      4      4      6
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Economy              20%    14%    17%    26%    16%
Taxes                 4      3      3      5      5
Health care          12     17     14     35     11
Immigration          29     32     30      6     33
Supreme Court        16     19     18     14     18
Gun policy            8      8      8      9     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   7      4      5      3      4
DK/NA                 5      4      5      2      3
 
 
8. Thinking about who to vote for in the election for United States Senator, which of the following is most important to you: is it someone who is honest, someone who shares your values, someone who cares about average people, someone who is likeable, or someone who is inspiring?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Honest               28%    22%    34%    31%    26%    30%    26%    23%
Shares values        45     62     31     35     48     42     53     54
Cares about people   19     12     24     26     19     20     17     14
Likeable              2      1      2      2      1      3      -      1
Inspiring             3      1      3      3      2      3      2      3
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      1      3      1      3      1      1      2
DK/NA                 1      2      3      -      1      2      1      2
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Honest               22%    26%    24%    47%    28%
Shares values        56     53     54     21     38
Cares about people   15     16     15     23     24
Likeable              -      1      1      5      3
Inspiring             3      2      3      1      2
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      -      1      2      4
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS........................................
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              51%    93%     6%    38%    60%    43%    56%    75%
Disapprove           46      6     91     58     37     54     41     21
DK/NA                 3      1      3      4      3      3      3      4
 
                     WHITE.....
                     Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              73%    58%    65%     5%    43%
Disapprove           24     39     32     90     57
DK/NA                 3      4      3      5      -