February 28, 2019 - Biden, Sanders, O'Rourke Tie Trump In Texas, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cornyn, O'Rourke In Dead Heat In 2020 Senate Matchup Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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In a very early look at possible 2020 presidential matchups in Texas, President Donald Trump is essentially tied with former Vice President Joe Biden, U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders or former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. President Trump leads other possible Democratic contenders by small margins.

Hypothetical matchups by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll show:
  • President Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to Biden's 46 percent, including 46 percent of independent voters;
  • Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to Sanders' 45 percent, including 48 percent of independent voters;
  • Trump at 47 percent, including 41 percent of independent voters, to O'Rourke's 46 percent, including 48 percent of independent voters.
Trump has leads, driven mainly by a shift among independent voters, over other possible Democratic candidates:
  • 46 - 41 percent over former San Antonio Mayor and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro;
  • 48 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris of California;
  • 48 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.
Biden, Sanders and O'Rourke share similar support among Democrats and voters 18 - 34 years old.

"The 2020 presidential race in Texas, and how some of Democrats stack up against President Donald Trump, begins as a two-tiered contest. There are three more well-known contenders who run evenly against President Donald Trump. Another group, less well-known, are just a little behind Trump," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Former Vice President Joe Biden has the highest favorability of any of the contenders and has a better net favorability than President Trump," Brown added. "Former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke also does relatively well on favorability and in a matchup with Trump, but that may well be due to O'Rourke being a home-state favorite.

"But former Housing Secretary Julian Castro, who is also a former San Antonio mayor, does not do as well as O'Rourke."

Among Texas voters, 47 percent have a favorable opinion of Trump, with 49 percent unfavorable. Favorability ratings for possible Democratic challengers are:
  • Biden: 48 - 38 percent;
  • Sanders: Negative 41 - 47 percent;
  • O'Rourke: Divided 44 - 40 percent;
  • Harris: Negative 24 - 33 percent;
  • Warren: Negative 27 - 42 percent;
  • Castro: Divided 23 - 27 percent;
  • U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey: 51 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;
  • Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg: 53 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;
  • U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York: 68 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion;
  • U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota: 70 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
Texas Senate Race

In an early look at the 2020 U.S. Senate race in Texas, Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and possible Democratic challenger Beto O'Rourke are tied 46 - 46 percent. Independent voters go to O'Rourke 47 - 40 percent.

From February 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,222 Texas voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, including the design effect.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts gold standard surveys using random digit dialing with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll conducts nationwide surveys and polls in more than a dozen states on national and statewide elections, as well as public policy issues.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Biden the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Biden                46%     7%    96%    46%    41%    51%    37%    27%
Trump                47     90      2     41     52     42     54     70
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      -      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 5      2      1      8      4      5      6      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Biden                56%    50%    41%    40%    29%    35%    32%    86%    58%
Trump                34     44     53     56     64     60     62      8     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      -      1      2      1      2      -      2
DK/NA                 6      3      5      3      3      4      4      5      7
 
 
2. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Sanders              45%     5%    93%    48%    40%    50%    33%    28%
Trump                47     92      3     41     52     42     57     69
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      2      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      3      4      2      3      4      2
DK/NA                 4      1      1      5      4      4      4      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Sanders              59%    50%    37%    36%    27%    34%    31%    83%    56%
Trump                33     42     55     58     66     59     63      8     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      4      1      1      1      1      1      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      3      2      3      3      2      2
DK/NA                 4      2      5      2      3      2      3      4      6
 
 
3. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             46%     6%    95%    48%    42%    51%    35%    26%
Trump                47     91      3     41     52     41     57     69
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      3      1      2      2      -
DK/NA                 4      3      2      6      4      5      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             56%    52%    41%    38%    28%    34%    31%    86%    59%
Trump                34     43     53     58     66     59     63      7     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      -      -      1      1      1      -      2
DK/NA                 6      2      4      4      3      5      4      6      5
 
 
4. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Kamala Harris the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Harris               41%     3%    91%    39%    34%    48%    33%    25%
Trump                48     93      3     43     54     43     57     70
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      3      7      4      3      3      2
DK/NA                 5      2      2      9      6      5      5      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Harris               50%    42%    39%    36%    25%    33%    29%    75%    51%
Trump                37     45     54     57     66     61     63     10     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      3      2      -      2      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      5      2      2      3      1      2      8      4
DK/NA                 6      5      4      4      4      3      4      7      9
 
 
5. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Elizabeth Warren the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Warren               41%     5%    89%    39%    35%    47%    33%    23%
Trump                48     90      4     44     53     43     58     70
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      1      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      3      6      4      3      3      3
DK/NA                 6      3      3      9      6      6      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Warren               51%    43%    38%    34%    23%    33%    28%    81%    50%
Trump                37     43     54     58     67     60     64      7     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      3      1      1      2      1      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      5      2      2      4      2      3      3      4
DK/NA                 7      7      4      4      5      3      4      8     11
 
 
6. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Julian Castro the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Castro               41%     5%    89%    39%    37%    45%    33%    22%
Trump                46     90      3     40     51     42     57     69
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      1      3      2      1      3      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      3      3      2      3
DK/NA                 8      3      5     13      8      9      5      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Castro               48%    45%    39%    34%    25%    31%    28%    79%    51%
Trump                34     42     53     58     65     61     63      6     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      1      1      2      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      -      2      3      2      2      4      2
DK/NA                12      7      6      5      5      5      5     10     14
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Beto O'Rourke the Democrat and John Cornyn the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
O'Rourke             46%     5%    94%    47%    40%    51%    36%    27%
Cornyn               46     89      4     40     50     41     56     65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      -      1      2      1      1      2
DK/NA                 6      3      3     10      6      7      4      4
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
O'Rourke             61%    47%    39%    37%    28%    35%    32%    79%    58%
Cornyn               27     44     55     58     64     57     60      9     33
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      2      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      4      -      1      2      1      2      -      1
DK/NA                11      5      6      3      3      6      4     12      8
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            47%    89%     5%    41%    52%    42%    54%    70%
Unfavorable          49      9     93     54     44     55     43     28
Hvn't hrd enough      2      1      1      3      3      1      1      1
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      2      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            37%    40%    55%    56%    64%    59%    62%    11%    33%
Unfavorable          60     56     43     41     33     38     36     87     61
Hvn't hrd enough      2      2      1      1      1      1      1      -      5
REFUSED               1      2      1      2      2      1      1      2      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            48%    17%    84%    52%    47%    48%    45%    36%
Unfavorable          38     72      4     31     41     34     45     55
Hvn't hrd enough     12      8     10     16      8     17      8      9
REFUSED               2      3      2      1      3      2      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            53%    48%    46%    44%    41%    39%    40%    77%    51%
Unfavorable          28     34     43     47     53     47     50      5     26
Hvn't hrd enough     17     14     10      8      6     11      8     15     20
REFUSED               2      4      1      1      1      2      1      3      3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            41%    12%    75%    45%    41%    41%    31%    28%
Unfavorable          47     84     11     41     52     43     62     66
Hvn't hrd enough     10      4     11     13      6     14      5      6
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            59%    43%    33%    29%    28%    31%    29%    66%    54%
Unfavorable          32     44     55     58     67     61     64     10     30
Hvn't hrd enough      8     11     11     11      4      7      6     22     14
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      1      2      1      1      2
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Beto O'Rourke favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            44%    11%    83%    45%    41%    46%    37%    26%
Unfavorable          40     79      2     36     47     34     53     61
Hvn't hrd enough     15     10     13     18     10     19      9     13
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            57%    43%    40%    34%    31%    33%    32%    78%    52%
Unfavorable          21     38     48     54     62     52     57      4     24
Hvn't hrd enough     21     17     12     11      6     15     11     18     22
REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      -      1      -      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Kamala Harris favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            24%     4%    54%    21%    23%    26%    20%    12%
Unfavorable          33     61      4     30     41     25     42     43
Hvn't hrd enough     42     35     41     49     35     49     37     44
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            24%    27%    26%    21%    15%    18%    16%    60%    25%
Unfavorable          20     32     39     42     50     35     42      9     24
Hvn't hrd enough     55     40     35     36     34     47     40     29     51
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      1      1      2      1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Elizabeth Warren favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            27%     4%    60%    24%    22%    31%    25%    15%
Unfavorable          42     75      7     40     51     33     56     56
Hvn't hrd enough     30     21     32     35     25     35     18     29
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            25%    27%    29%    26%    15%    24%    20%    54%    27%
Unfavorable          24     43     48     55     63     49     56     10     28
Hvn't hrd enough     50     30     22     17     20     26     23     35     44
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      -      1      2      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of Cory Booker favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            19%     3%    41%    17%    17%    20%    19%     8%
Unfavorable          29     52      3     30     37     21     40     39
Hvn't hrd enough     51     44     54     53     44     57     40     52
REFUSED               1      1      2      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            14%    22%    20%    18%    13%    14%    14%    48%    16%
Unfavorable          13     27     36     42     49     31     40      3     18
Hvn't hrd enough     73     49     44     38     38     53     46     47     65
REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      2      1      1      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            14%     7%    23%    15%    16%    12%    20%     6%
Unfavorable          31     49     15     28     35     26     39     39
Hvn't hrd enough     53     42     59     55     46     59     39     52
REFUSED               2      2      3      2      2      2      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable             7%    16%    17%    14%    16%    11%    13%    22%    11%
Unfavorable          16     33     36     40     43     36     39      9     25
Hvn't hrd enough     76     49     45     42     39     51     45     68     62
REFUSED               2      2      1      4      2      2      2      1      2
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            10%     3%    19%    11%    10%     9%     9%     6%
Unfavorable          22     38      5     19     26     18     31     27
Hvn't hrd enough     68     58     75     70     63     73     59     66
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            12%     6%    11%     9%     8%     8%     8%    14%    13%
Unfavorable           8     17     26     35     34     25     29      5     12
Hvn't hrd enough     79     75     63     56     58     66     62     81     74
REFUSED               -      2      -      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Julian Castro favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            23%     5%    50%    19%    21%    24%    20%    11%
Unfavorable          27     48      5     25     30     24     36     32
Hvn't hrd enough     49     46     43     56     48     50     42     56
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      2      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            24%    23%    24%    22%    15%    16%    15%    42%    32%
Unfavorable          17     22     29     40     39     30     34      6     20
Hvn't hrd enough     59     53     46     36     46     53     49     51     46
REFUSED               -      2      1      1      -      2      1      2      2
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Amy Klobuchar favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            11%     4%    23%     9%    12%    11%    14%     6%
Unfavorable          17     31      2     15     19     15     24     24
Hvn't hrd enough     70     64     72     76     68     73     61     69
REFUSED               1      1      2      -      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            10%     8%    11%    17%    11%    10%    10%    23%     8%
Unfavorable           8     13     23     26     27     22     24      2     10
Hvn't hrd enough     82     78     66     55     61     68     65     74     80
REFUSED               -      2      -      2      1      1      1      2      2
 
 
19. Is your opinion of John Cornyn favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            34%    55%    12%    34%    40%    29%    47%    39%
Unfavorable          21     11     38     18     21     21     29     19
Hvn't hrd enough     43     34     48     45     38     48     22     41
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      1      2      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            16%    28%    44%    49%    51%    36%    43%    16%    22%
Unfavorable          12     26     25     24     22     25     24     22     18
Hvn't hrd enough     71     45     30     24     25     38     31     62     59
REFUSED               1      1      1      3      2      1      1      1      2