April 11, 2017 - Dems Hold Double-Digit Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Kaine Has Big Lead In Early Look At 2018 Senate Race Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Virginia Democrats are locked in a tight primary in this year's governor's race, but either contender tops the lead Republican, former GOP National Committee Chair Ed Gillespie, by double digits, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In the Democratic primary for governor, former U.S. Rep. Tom Perriello has 25 percent to Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam's 20 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Another 51 percent are undecided.

Gillespie leads the Republican primary with 28 percent, followed by Prince William County Supervisors Chair Corey Stewart at 12 percent, State Sen. Frank Wagner with 7 percent and 51 percent undecided.

In possible general election matchups:
  • Perriello tops Gillespie 46 - 33 percent;
  • Northam leads Gillespie 44 - 33 percent. Margins are similar in other possible matchups.
None of the candidates is well known, as the number of Virginia voters who don't know enough about the candidates to form an opinion of them ranges from 49 percent for Gillespie to 77 percent for Wagner.

"Two months before Virginia Democrats and Republicans pick their candidates for governor, the heavy front-runner in each primary is 'undecided,'" said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"Although the race for the Republican nomination is far from over, former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie is solidly ahead among those who name a candidate.

"Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam originally had been expected to coast to the nomination, but former Congressman Tom Perriello is inching ahead."

"Seven months before the November election, the early signs are very positive for the Democrats. Both Democrats have double-digit leads over any GOP candidate," Brown added.

In the Virginia governor's race between Perriello and Gillespie, women back the Democrat 52 - 27 percent. Men are divided, with 40 percent for Gillespie and 39 percent for Perriello. White voters go 42 percent for Gillespie and 39 percent for Perriello, while non-white voters go Democratic 64 - 14 percent. Independent voters back the Democrat 39 - 27 percent.

In the Northam-Gillespie face-off, women go Democratic 49 - 28 percent, while men go 39 percent for the Republican and 38 percent for the Democrat. White voters go 41 percent for Gillespie and 38 percent for Northam. Non-white voters go Democratic 58 - 16 percent.

Trump, McAuliffe Approval Ratings

Virginia voters disapprove 57 - 36 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans, white voters with no college degree and white men are the only listed party, gender, educational, age or racial groups to approve.

Voters approve 52 - 32 percent of the job Gov. Terry McAuliffe is doing.

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner gets a 62 - 27 percent approval rating.

2018 U.S. Senate Race

In an early look at the 2018 U.S. Senate race in Virginia, Democratic incumbent Sen. Tim Kaine has strong leads over two possible Republican challengers:
  • 56 - 35 percent over Laura Ingraham;
  • 57 - 33 percent over Carly Fiorina.
Kaine has a 58 - 34 percent job approval and a 57 - 36 percent favorability rating. Fiorina gets a negative 26 - 36 percent favorability rating, with 37 percent who don't know enough about her to form an opinion of her. For Ingraham, 52 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

From April 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,115 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 435 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 4.7 percentage points and 483 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ed Gillespie, Corey Stewart, and Frank Wagner, for whom would you vote?
                     REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS..............................
                            Wht    POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY               WHITE......
                            BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE  Mod/                 COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Evang  Very   Smwht  Lib    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillespie            28%    22%    27%    30%    29%    33%    22%    31%    22%
Stewart              12     15     19      7      8     11     12     13     10
Wagner                7      5      4      8      8      9      4      8      7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      1      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      2      4      2      2      2      1
DK/NA                51     57     50     50     51     44     60     45     60
 
 
2. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello and Ralph Northam, for whom would you vote?
                     DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS..........
                            POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                            LIBERAL.....  Mod/
                     Tot    Very   Smwht  Cons   Men    Wom
 
Perriello            25%    33%    25%    24%    31%    22%
Northam              20     18     23     20     17     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      2      3      2      3
DK/NA                51     48     50     52     49     53
 
 
3. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              44%     2%    83%    39%    38%    49%    44%    31%
Gillespie            33     83      5     30     39     28     36     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      3      2      1      2
DK/NA                19     13     10     28     19     20     18     18
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              53%    45%    43%    39%    33%    43%    38%    58%
Gillespie            24     33     36     39     46     37     41     16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1      -      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      2      2      3      -      2      4
DK/NA                18     18     18     19     17     19     18     20
 
 
4. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Corey Stewart the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              43%     3%    85%    36%    37%    49%    43%    30%
Stewart              30     82      1     24     36     24     34     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      3      3      3      1
DK/NA                23     13     10     34     22     23     20     26
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              49%    45%    45%    39%    33%    41%    37%    60%
Stewart              21     29     31     37     42     34     38     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      2      2      2      3      1      2      4
DK/NA                23     22     20     21     21     24     23     21
 
 
5. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Frank Wagner the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              43%     3%    85%    33%    35%    49%    44%    29%
Wagner               30     76      3     25     36     24     31     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      2      4      4      2      2      1
DK/NA                24     20     10     36     24     23     22     26
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              45%    45%    44%    40%    32%    43%    37%    57%
Wagner               27     27     32     32     43     31     36     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      1      1      2      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      2      3      1      2      5
DK/NA                23     24     19     25     21     26     23     22
 
 
6. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Perriello            46%     2%    89%    39%    39%    52%    44%    34%
Gillespie            33     85      3     27     40     27     37     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      3      2      1      1      2
DK/NA                18     11      8     29     17     19     18     16
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Perriello            55%    47%    46%    42%    34%    44%    39%    64%
Gillespie            23     32     37     38     47     36     42     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                19     19     15     17     16     18     17     20
 
 
7. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Corey Stewart the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Perriello            45%     3%    87%    38%    40%    51%    43%    33%
Stewart              31     84      2     26     38     25     35     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      1      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      4      3      2      2      2
DK/NA                20     12     11     31     18     22     20     20
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Perriello            55%    42%    47%    41%    34%    42%    38%    64%
Stewart              24     32     33     37     45     34     40     14
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      3      3      1      3      1      2      2
DK/NA                18     22     17     20     18     22     20     19
 
 
8. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Tom Perriello the Democrat and Frank Wagner the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Perriello            43%     3%    86%    34%    36%    50%    41%    33%
Wagner               32     82      3     27     39     26     35     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      1      -      4      4      2      2      1
DK/NA                21     14     10     33     21     21     21     18
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Perriello            45%    44%    47%    41%    32%    42%    37%    59%
Wagner               31     28     33     37     46     35     40     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      2      -      1      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      3      3      1      2      1      2      4
DK/NA                20     23     17     19     19     21     20     21
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            24%     8%    44%    20%    23%    25%    28%    19%
Unfavorable           8     14      3     10     11      6     10      9
Hvn't hrd enough     66     77     51     69     64     68     61     71
REFUSED               1      1      2      2      2      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            21%    27%    27%    24%    25%    23%    24%    27%
Unfavorable           5     12     10      7     12      7     10      6
Hvn't hrd enough     72     60     62     69     63     69     66     65
REFUSED               2      1      1      -      1      1      1      3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Tom Perriello favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            24%     5%    43%    19%    25%    24%    27%    18%
Unfavorable          11     23      4     11     12     11     15     13
Hvn't hrd enough     63     71     51     69     61     65     58     68
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            25%    24%    25%    23%    24%    21%    22%    29%
Unfavorable           5     15     12     14     15     13     14      5
Hvn't hrd enough     68     60     61     62     60     65     62     63
REFUSED               3      2      2      1      1      1      1      3
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            23%    44%     8%    26%    28%    19%    26%    24%
Unfavorable          26      8     46     23     24     27     30     19
Hvn't hrd enough     49     48     45     50     46     53     42     55
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            20%    20%    26%    27%    30%    21%    25%    19%
Unfavorable          29     29     26     21     24     25     25     28
Hvn't hrd enough     49     50     47     50     44     52     48     51
REFUSED               3      2      1      2      2      1      1      2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Corey Stewart favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            12%    26%     3%    12%    15%    10%    13%    14%
Unfavorable          12      1     19     14     13     10     16      6
Hvn't hrd enough     75     72     78     73     70     80     71     79
REFUSED               1      1      -      1      1      -      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable             7%    16%    14%    13%    15%    12%    13%    11%
Unfavorable          15     12     12      8     12     10     11     13
Hvn't hrd enough     78     72     72     78     72     78     75     76
REFUSED               -      -      2      -      1      -      1      -
 
 
13. Is your opinion of Frank Wagner favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            11%    19%     4%    13%    16%     7%    11%    14%
Unfavorable          10      3     17      8      8     12     11      6
Hvn't hrd enough     77     77     77     78     74     80     77     79
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      2      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable             9%     8%    15%    13%    17%     7%    12%     9%
Unfavorable          12     11      9      8      7     11      9     12
Hvn't hrd enough     76     77     75     78     74     81     78     76
REFUSED               2      4      1      1      1      1      1      3
 
 
14. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and Laura Ingraham the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Kaine                56%     5%    98%    51%    48%    63%    54%    40%
Ingraham             35     88      1     33     43     27     39     49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      3      3      1      1      1
DK/NA                 7      6      1     12      6      9      5     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Kaine                64%    59%    55%    52%    42%    53%    48%    76%
Ingraham             24     33     38     41     49     38     44     15
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      -      1      2      -      1      2
DK/NA                10      4      6      6      6      8      7      7
 
 
15. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Tim Kaine the Democrat and Carly Fiorina the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Kaine                57%     4%    98%    54%    50%    63%    55%    40%
Fiorina              33     88      -     29     41     26     39     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      1      5      4      3      2      3
DK/NA                 7      6      1     11      6      8      5     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Kaine                64%    59%    57%    50%    43%    53%    48%    77%
Fiorina              23     32     36     40     49     36     42     13
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      -      -      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      3      2      1      2      2      2      5
DK/NA                 7      5      6      8      6      9      7      5
 
 
16. Is your opinion of Tim Kaine favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            57%     9%    97%    53%    51%    62%    57%    41%
Unfavorable          36     88      -     37     43     29     40     51
Hvn't hrd enough      7      3      3      9      4      9      3      6
REFUSED               1      -      -      2      2      -      -      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            58%    60%    58%    53%    44%    54%    49%    73%
Unfavorable          28     35     38     40     51     40     45     15
Hvn't hrd enough     12      4      4      6      3      6      5     11
REFUSED               2      -      -      -      2      -      1      -
 
 
17. Is your opinion of Laura Ingraham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            26%    59%     2%    29%    33%    21%    31%    33%
Unfavorable          21      3     37     21     17     24     27     14
Hvn't hrd enough     52     38     61     50     49     55     42     53
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      -      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            15%    32%    27%    32%    35%    28%    32%    14%
Unfavorable          15     24     26     18     18     23     21     21
Hvn't hrd enough     70     43     46     49     46     48     47     63
REFUSED               -      1      1      -      -      -      -      1
 
 
18. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            26%    56%     4%    29%    30%    22%    34%    28%
Unfavorable          36     12     64     31     32     39     45     27
Hvn't hrd enough     37     31     31     39     36     37     21     42
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      2      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            15%    28%    30%    31%    35%    28%    31%    14%
Unfavorable          37     37     38     31     33     40     36     35
Hvn't hrd enough     45     35     31     36     31     30     31     51
REFUSED               3      -      1      1      1      2      2      -
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              52%    20%    83%    47%    46%    58%    53%    42%
Disapprove           32     67      7     32     38     26     36     37
DK/NA                16     13     10     21     16     16     11     21
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              54%    52%    56%    49%    44%    52%    48%    63%
Disapprove           24     32     33     39     39     34     36     22
DK/NA                22     17     11     13     16     15     15     15
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              38%    47%    30%    40%    42%    34%    40%    37%
Disapprove           41     29     50     42     41     42     45     35
DK/NA                21     24     20     18     17     24     15     28
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              44%    34%    37%    36%    45%    32%    39%    37%
Disapprove           37     46     46     39     38     42     40     45
DK/NA                19     20     17     25     17     25     21     18
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              62%    32%    87%    63%    59%    65%    65%    55%
Disapprove           27     55      6     27     31     24     28     29
DK/NA                11     13      6     10     11     11      7     16
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              56%    63%    68%    61%    56%    64%    60%    68%
Disapprove           27     22     26     32     32     25     28     23
DK/NA                16     14      6      6     12     11     11      9
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              58%    11%    96%    57%    52%    63%    55%    44%
Disapprove           34     84      -     34     41     29     40     47
DK/NA                 7      5      4     10      7      8      5      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              64%    58%    60%    53%    45%    55%    50%    77%
Disapprove           24     34     36     42     47     40     43     16
DK/NA                11      8      4      5      8      6      7      7
 
 
23. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              36%    88%     3%    30%    42%    30%    38%    53%
Disapprove           57      6     95     59     48     65     56     40
DK/NA                 7      6      2     10     10      5      6      7
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              25%    32%    39%    44%    50%    40%    45%    16%
Disapprove           67     62     55     49     43     54     49     77
DK/NA                 8      6      5      8      7      6      7      7