June 21, 2017 - Northam Up 8 Points In Virginia Governor's Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Economy, Health Care Are Top Issues For Voters Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Wide gender and racial gaps mark the first post-primary survey of the Virginia governor's race, as Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam leads Republican Ed Gillespie 47 - 39 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The Democrat leads 54 - 33 percent among women, while the Republican leads 47 - 39 percent among men, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. White voters back Gillespie 48 - 40 percent, while non-white voters back Northam 65 - 20 percent.

Gillespie leads 91 - 4 percent among Republicans while Northam takes Democrats 94 - 1 percent. Independent voters are divided with 40 percent for Gillespie and 38 percent for Northam.

Northam gets a 36 - 24 percent favorability rating, with 39 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him. Gillespie gets a split 29 - 29 percent favorability rating, with 39 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

In another boost for Democrats, Virginia voters say 48 - 41 percent that they would like to see the Democrats in control of the State Legislature.

The economy is the most important issue in deciding their vote for governor, 31 percent of voters say, while 30 percent list health care; 15 percent list education, with 10 percent each for taxes and immigration.

"Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam begins the general election as the favorite to become the Old Dominion's next governor. But not an overwhelming one," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"The Democrat's margin over Republican Ed Gillespie is a product of national and Virginia factors."

"Northam is certainly benefiting from the unpopularity of President Donald Trump. He also is getting a bump from his ties to fellow Democrat, Gov. Terry McAuliffe," Brown added.

"Although Northam's lead is just 47 - 39 percent, other data indicates the difficulty of the job facing Gillespie. Voters have a mixed view of Gillespie. By a three-two margin, they see Northam favorably. And, voters say they would prefer that the Democrats control the State Legislature."

By a narrow 42 - 38 percent, Virginia voters say Gillespie would do a better job handling the economy. Looking at how candidates handle other issues:
  • Northam tops Gillespie on handling health care, 46 - 33 percent;
  • The Democrat leads on handling education 45 - 32 percent;
  • 40 percent say Gillespie is better on taxes, while 37 percent pick Northam;
  • Northam is better handling immigration, 40 percent say, while 37 percent pick Gillespie.
Only 25 percent of Virginia voters are more likely to vote for a candidate for governor who supports President Donald Trump, while 46 percent are less likely to vote for a Trump supporter and 28 percent say Trump support will have no impact on their vote for governor.

Gov. McAuliffe, U.S. Senators Approval Ratings

Gov. Terry McAuliffe gets a 47 - 37 percent job approval rating, compared to a 52 - 32 percent approval rating April 11.

Virginia voters approve 52 - 38 percent of the job U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine is doing and say 47 - 38 percent that he deserves reelection next year.

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner gets a 55 - 31 percent approval rating.

From June 15 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,145 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll

Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat and Ed Gillespie the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              47%     4%    94%    38%    39%    54%    50%    30%
Gillespie            39     91      1     40     47     33     40     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -      3      2      1      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      5      2      2      1      1
DK/NA                 9      4      4     13      9     10      8      9
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              47%    51%    46%    49%    32%    47%    40%    65%
Gillespie            35     40     41     41     56     42     48     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      -      2      2      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      1      2      -      1      1      1      4
DK/NA                10      5     11      8      9      8      9     11
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            36%     9%    68%    30%    31%    41%    46%    22%
Unfavorable          24     43      4     27     28     20     24     33
Hvn't hrd enough     39     48     28     42     40     38     29     45
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      1      1      -
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            26%    41%    37%    43%    28%    39%    34%    42%
Unfavorable          16     24     29     21     33     25     29     12
Hvn't hrd enough     58     34     33     35     39     36     37     44
REFUSED               -      1      1      1      -      -      -      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            29%    61%     5%    29%    34%    25%    34%    36%
Unfavorable          29      9     49     27     26     32     37     23
Hvn't hrd enough     39     28     44     42     37     40     27     39
REFUSED               2      1      2      3      2      3      2      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            14%    35%    33%    34%    40%    30%    35%    18%
Unfavorable          26     33     32     28     26     33     30     28
Hvn't hrd enough     59     30     32     34     32     34     33     53
REFUSED               1      2      3      4      2      3      3      2
 
 
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              47%    19%    78%    42%    42%    53%    55%    32%
Disapprove           37     70      7     40     43     31     36     50
DK/NA                16     12     15     18     15     16      9     19
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              43%    49%    50%    52%    35%    50%    43%    57%
Disapprove           30     39     41     36     52     35     43     23
DK/NA                27     12      9     13     13     15     14     20
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              38%    42%    34%    38%    42%    34%    42%    34%
Disapprove           42     36     46     43     38     45     43     40
DK/NA                20     22     20     19     20     20     15     26
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              37%    39%    38%    36%    39%    37%    38%    39%
Disapprove           39     47     42     42     41     42     42     42
DK/NA                24     14     20     22     21     20     21     19
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              55%    28%    82%    54%    48%    61%    64%    42%
Disapprove           31     58      8     33     38     25     29     39
DK/NA                14     14     10     13     14     14      7     18
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              47%    55%    61%    58%    44%    62%    53%    61%
Disapprove           29     30     31     32     44     25     34     21
DK/NA                24     14      8      9     12     13     12     17
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              52%    18%    85%    50%    47%    57%    59%    37%
Disapprove           38     71      9     41     44     32     36     49
DK/NA                10     11      6     10      9     11      4     14
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              48%    56%    54%    54%    42%    54%    48%    62%
Disapprove           36     36     39     38     50     36     43     26
DK/NA                16      8      7      8      8     10      9     12
 
 
9. Do you feel that Tim Kaine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Deserves         47%    12%    84%    43%    42%    52%    55%    31%
No/Does not          38     74      6     42     46     32     38     54
DK/NA                14     14     10     15     12     17      7     15
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes/Deserves         48%    49%    48%    50%    35%    49%    43%    58%
No/Does not          32     39     41     42     55     38     46     22
DK/NA                21     13     11      8      9     13     11     20
 
 
10. Would you like to see the Democrats or the Republicans control the Virginia state legislature?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Democrats            48%     2%    98%    39%    39%    55%    51%    29%
Republicans          41     94      -     43     50     34     41     61
DK/NA                11      4      2     18     11     11      8     10
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Democrats            49%    51%    46%    49%    31%    48%    40%    67%
Republicans          39     39     43     42     59     44     51     20
DK/NA                12     10     11      9     10      8      9     13
 
 
11. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Virginia today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Very satisfied        4%     4%     4%     4%     5%     3%     5%     3%
Smwht satisfied      56     47     72     52     59     54     61     51
Smwht dissatisfied   28     33     17     30     26     29     23     35
Very dissatisfied    11     16      6     12     10     11     10     10
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      2      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Very satisfied        3%     3%     4%     6%     5%     3%     4%     4%
Smwht satisfied      60     55     57     55     56     55     56     59
Smwht dissatisfied   26     30     28     26     28     30     29     25
Very dissatisfied    10     11     11     11     11      9     10     11
DK/NA                 2      1      -      2      -      2      1      1
 
 
12. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, health care, or immigration?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Taxes                10%    15%     6%     9%    12%     9%    10%    12%
Economy              31     41     20     33     37     25     30     35
Education            15      4     23     14     13     17     16      9
Health care          30     15     46     29     21     38     33     28
Immigration          10     18      2     11     13      8      8     14
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      4      1      2      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Taxes                13%    12%    10%     7%    14%     8%    11%     9%
Economy              32     32     29     30     36     29     32     27
Education            25     16     11     10     11     14     12     22
Health care          23     27     35     36     21     38     30     30
Immigration           7      8     11     12     14      8     11      8
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   1      4      2      2      3      1      2      2
DK/NA                 -      2      3      3      2      2      2      2
 
 
13. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - taxes: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              37%     4%    73%    30%    26%    46%    43%    25%
Gillespie            40     81      6     43     48     33     43     50
DK/NA                23     15     22     27     26     21     14     25
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              33%    43%    38%    38%    24%    43%    34%    45%
Gillespie            32     43     44     39     54     39     47     26
DK/NA                36     14     18     22     22     18     20     29
 
 
14. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - the economy: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              38%     5%    78%    29%    30%    45%    44%    24%
Gillespie            42     84      7     45     51     35     44     54
DK/NA                19     11     15     25     19     20     12     22
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              34%    41%    40%    41%    27%    41%    34%    48%
Gillespie            40     43     45     40     56     42     49     28
DK/NA                26     15     15     19     17     18     17     23
 
 
15. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - education: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              45%    14%    80%    38%    40%    49%    53%    31%
Gillespie            32     69      3     33     38     26     31     43
DK/NA                23     18     17     29     22     24     16     27
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              45%    49%    45%    45%    39%    44%    42%    54%
Gillespie            22     32     36     34     41     33     37     20
DK/NA                33     19     18     21     20     22     21     26
 
 
16. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - health care: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              46%    10%    86%    38%    38%    52%    53%    30%
Gillespie            33     71      3     35     38     29     35     45
DK/NA                21     19     11     27     24     18     12     25
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              41%    51%    46%    50%    35%    48%    42%    56%
Gillespie            27     30     39     33     45     35     40     18
DK/NA                32     19     16     16     20     17     18     26
 
 
17. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - immigration: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              40%     7%    77%    32%    33%    47%    45%    26%
Gillespie            37     75      5     39     44     30     39     51
DK/NA                23     18     18     28     22     23     16     23
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              44%    45%    39%    39%    30%    41%    36%    51%
Gillespie            26     39     43     36     52     39     45     20
DK/NA                29     17     19     25     18     20     19     29
 
 
18. If a candidate for governor supports President Trump, does that make you: more likely to vote for them, less likely to vote for them, or doesn't it have an impact either way?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More likely          25%    58%     3%    22%    30%    20%    20%    40%
Less likely          46      5     84     41     38     52     52     26
No impact            28     36     13     36     31     27     27     32
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
More likely          24%    22%    23%    26%    34%    27%    30%    11%
Less likely          49     48     46     42     33     44     39     62
No impact            26     30     30     29     32     28     30     26
DK/NA                 1      -      1      2      1      1      1      1
 
 
19. Would you describe the state of Virginia's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Excellent             4%     4%     4%     4%     5%     3%     5%     3%
Good                 59     57     69     55     66     53     71     54
Not so good          28     33     20     30     24     32     20     35
Poor                  7      5      5     10      4      9      3      6
DK/NA                 2      1      2      1      1      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Excellent             2%     4%     5%     3%     4%     3%     4%     4%
Good                 58     62     62     59     68     57     62     54
Not so good          26     30     26     29     22     33     27     29
Poor                 12      3      7      5      4      5      5     11
DK/NA                 2      1      -      3      1      2      2      1
 
 
20. Do you think Virginia's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Better               24%    18%    29%    25%    26%    22%    28%    22%
Worse                13     14      9     15      9     17     11     15
The same             59     65     59     55     63     56     59     57
DK/NA                 4      3      3      4      2      5      2      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Better               24%    23%    29%    19%    27%    24%    25%    22%
Worse                16     12     13     13     11     15     13     15
The same             57     64     55     63     60     56     58     60
DK/NA                 3      1      3      5      2      5      4      4
 
 
21. Would you describe your financial situation these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Excellent            11%    12%    11%    12%    14%     9%    17%     9%
Good                 62     65     64     60     65     60     69     59
Not so good          18     16     15     21     17     19     12     21
Poor                  7      5      8      5      5      8      1      9
DK/NA                 2      2      1      2      1      3      -      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Excellent             7%    13%    13%    12%    15%    12%    13%     8%
Good                 57     68     61     61     66     62     64     60
Not so good          25     12     20     18     15     17     16     21
Poor                 11      7      4      7      4      7      5     10
DK/NA                 -      -      1      2      -      2      1      1