August 9, 2017 - Democrat Holds 6-Point Lead In Virginia Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Democrats To Control State Legislature Quinnipiac University Polling Logo
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Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam holds a 44 - 38 percent lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the Virginia governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra has 4 percent.

Northam had a 47 - 39 percent lead over Gillespie in a June 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. This earlier survey did not include a third party candidate.

Independent voters back the Republican 39 - 30 percent, with 8 percent for Hyra. Democrats back Northam 89 - 5 percent, with 1 percent for Hyra, as Republicans back Gillespie 89 - 1 percent, with 3 percent for Hyra.

Northam leads 51 - 33 percent among women, 48 - 39 percent among white college educated voters and 56 - 21 percent among non-white voters.

Gillespie leads 44 - 35 percent among men, 54 - 28 percent among white voters with no college degree and 47 - 38 percent among all white voters.

"The Virginia Governor's race leans toward Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam, but not overly so," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.

"With three months until Election Day, the race remains competitive.

"Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie apparently has been able to convince many voters that he is his own man. Gillespie is within six percentage points of Northam despite President Donald Trump's unpopularity in the Old Dominion.

"Libertarian Cliff Hyra is getting 4 percent of the vote. Given Northam's 6-point lead, Hyra could become a factor in the race."

Health care is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote in the governor's race, 36 percent of Virginia voters say, while 25 percent list the economy and 16 percent cite education.

Virginia voters say 44 - 34 percent that Northam would do a better job handling health care. Comparing the candidates on other issues, voters say:
  • 41 - 38 percent that Gillespie would do a better job on the economy;
  • 42 - 35 percent that Northam would do a better job on education;
  • Split 38 - 38 percent on who would do a better job on immigration;
  • 41 - 37 percent that Gillespie would do a better job on taxes.
Virginia voters give Northam a 35 - 18 percent favorability rating, with 45 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion of him.

Gillespie gets a 38 - 27 percent favorability rating, with 34 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

For Hyra, 87 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Virginia voters say 49 - 38 percent that they would like to see the Democrats in control of the State Legislature. Independent voters are divided 38 - 38 percent on who should control the State Legislature.

President Trump's Approval

Virginia voters disapprove 61 - 36 percent of the job President Donald Trump is doing. Republicans approve 82 - 14 percent and white voters with no college degree approve 56 - 42 percent. Every other party, gender, education, age and racial group disapproves.

Voters approve 51 - 35 percent of the job Gov. Terry McAuliffe is doing, up from 47 - 37 percent June 21.

U.S. Sen. Tim Kaine gets a 54 - 38 percent approval rating and Virginia voters say 50 - 40 percent that he deserves to be reelected.

U.S. Sen. Mark Warner gets a 59 - 30 percent job approval rating.

From August 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,082 Virginia voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys nationwide, and in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa and Colorado as a public service and for research.

Visit poll.qu.edu or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.

1. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Ralph Northam the Democrat, Ed Gillespie the Republican, and Cliff Hyra the Libertarian, for whom would you vote?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              44%     1%    89%    30%    35%    51%    48%    28%
Gillespie            38     89      5     39     44     33     39     54
Hyra                  4      3      1      8      5      3      3      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      -      5      2      2      1      1
DK/NA                11      5      5     18     12     10      7     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              46%    46%    45%    40%    34%    42%    38%    56%
Gillespie            28     38     43     45     48     46     47     21
Hyra                  8      3      3      2      3      3      3      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      -      2      -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      1      1      2      1      1      4
DK/NA                16      7      8     12     11      8      9     13
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Ralph Northam favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            35%     5%    68%    26%    30%    40%    43%    25%
Unfavorable          18     36      2     23     24     13     20     24
Hvn't hrd enough     45     55     30     50     44     46     36     49
REFUSED               2      4      -      2      2      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            35%    34%    34%    40%    29%    39%    34%    39%
Unfavorable          12     21     22     19     26     18     22     11
Hvn't hrd enough     49     44     44     39     43     42     43     49
REFUSED               4      1      1      2      1      2      1      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Ed Gillespie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            38%    70%    12%    43%    42%    34%    38%    45%
Unfavorable          27      5     50     21     29     25     38     19
Hvn't hrd enough     34     24     36     34     27     40     22     35
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      2      1      2      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable            27%    37%    42%    45%    44%    40%    42%    29%
Unfavorable          28     27     28     26     30     26     28     25
Hvn't hrd enough     43     35     30     27     24     32     28     44
REFUSED               3      1      -      2      2      1      2      1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Cliff Hyra favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable             4%     4%     2%     7%     5%     3%     3%     4%
Unfavorable           8      8      9      8     11      5      7      9
Hvn't hrd enough     87     87     89     85     83     91     89     86
REFUSED               1      2      -      -      1      -      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Favorable             9%     2%     3%     5%     4%     4%     4%     5%
Unfavorable          12     10      7      6     10      7      8      8
Hvn't hrd enough     78     87     90     88     86     89     87     87
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Terry McAuliffe is handling his job as Governor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              51%    16%    81%    46%    49%    53%    56%    37%
Disapprove           35     72      7     37     41     29     35     46
DK/NA                14     12     12     17     11     17      9     18
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              53%    50%    53%    49%    45%    47%    46%    64%
Disapprove           26     35     38     40     45     37     40     20
DK/NA                21     15      9     12     10     16     13     16
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              42%    43%    42%    45%    40%    44%    40%    40%
Disapprove           38     33     42     35     40     35     44     34
DK/NA                21     24     16     20     20     21     16     26
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              48%    39%    42%    42%    39%    42%    40%    47%
Disapprove           32     41     40     35     42     36     39     35
DK/NA                20     21     18     23     20     22     21     18
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Warner is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              59%    26%    86%    57%    55%    63%    63%    47%
Disapprove           30     62      7     31     36     24     31     40
DK/NA                11     12      7     12      9     12      7     14
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              59%    61%    58%    60%    53%    56%    55%    71%
Disapprove           22     31     34     33     40     31     35     18
DK/NA                19      8      8      7      7     13     10     11
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Tim Kaine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              54%    16%    88%    49%    49%    59%    59%    38%
Disapprove           38     76      8     43     44     32     38     52
DK/NA                 8      9      4      8      7      9      4     11
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              60%    53%    56%    51%    45%    51%    48%    70%
Disapprove           31     41     39     41     50     40     45     22
DK/NA                 9      7      4      8      6      9      7      7
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Approve              36%    82%     2%    38%    40%    32%    34%    56%
Disapprove           61     14     97     57     57     64     63     42
DK/NA                 4      4      1      5      3      4      3      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Approve              27%    35%    39%    43%    47%    43%    45%    15%
Disapprove           70     62     58     54     51     54     52     80
DK/NA                 3      3      3      3      2      3      3      5
 
 
10. Do you feel that Tim Kaine deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be reelected?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Yes/Deserves         50%    12%    85%    42%    46%    53%    55%    34%
No/Does not          40     78      7     48     46     34     38     55
DK/NA                10     10      7     10      8     12      7     12
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Yes/Deserves         55%    50%    50%    48%    41%    48%    44%    64%
No/Does not          34     40     42     43     51     41     46     25
DK/NA                11     11      8      9      8     11      9     11
 
 
11. Would you like to see the Democrats or the Republicans control the Virginia state legislature?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Democrats            49%     1%    94%    38%    41%    56%    50%    32%
Republicans          38     94      1     38     43     33     40     54
DK/NA                14      6      5     23     16     11     10     13
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Democrats            59%    47%    46%    46%    35%    47%    41%    67%
Republicans          29     36     42     44     50     45     48     18
DK/NA                12     16     12     10     15      8     11     15
 
 
12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in Virginia today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Very satisfied        8%     5%    10%     8%     6%     9%     7%     7%
Smwht satisfied      58     46     70     57     58     57     62     52
Smwht dissatisfied   25     36     15     27     27     24     24     29
Very dissatisfied     8     13      4      8      8      8      5     10
DK/NA                 2      1      1      -      1      2      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Very satisfied        6%    10%     6%     7%     6%     8%     7%    10%
Smwht satisfied      68     55     54     57     55     58     57     59
Smwht dissatisfied   24     22     30     25     29     25     27     22
Very dissatisfied     -     12     10      7      8      7      8      8
DK/NA                 2      1      -      3      2      2      2      1
 
 
13. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year: taxes, the economy, education, health care, or immigration?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Taxes                11%    18%     5%    13%    12%    11%    13%    10%
Economy              25     34     15     28     30     21     24     28
Education            16      8     21     19     17     16     17     13
Health care          36     19     56     30     31     41     34     36
Immigration           8     17      2      7      6      9      9     10
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   2      2      1      2      2      1      2      1
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      2      1      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Taxes                11%    12%    15%     8%    13%    10%    11%    12%
Economy              23     23     28     25     29     22     26     23
Education            24     23     11     11     14     16     15     18
Health care          37     34     34     41     32     37     35     40
Immigration           5      5      9     11      8     11      9      4
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   -      3      2      1      2      1      2      2
DK/NA                 -      1      1      4      1      2      2      1
 
 
14. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - taxes: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              37%     5%    72%    26%    34%    40%    41%    26%
Gillespie            41     83     12     43     46     37     46     52
DK/NA                21     12     16     30     20     23     14     23
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              44%    35%    36%    37%    32%    34%    33%    46%
Gillespie            31     43     47     46     50     47     49     26
DK/NA                25     22     18     17     18     18     18     27
 
 
15. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - the economy: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              38%     5%    72%    29%    34%    42%    41%    26%
Gillespie            41     82     12     44     45     38     43     53
DK/NA                20     12     16     27     21     20     16     21
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              46%    37%    36%    36%    32%    35%    33%    49%
Gillespie            31     43     47     46     49     48     48     27
DK/NA                23     20     18     18     19     17     18     24
 
 
16. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - education: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              42%     7%    75%    36%    41%    43%    49%    28%
Gillespie            35     77     10     35     35     36     33     48
DK/NA                22     16     15     29     24     21     18     23
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              48%    44%    40%    40%    38%    39%    39%    51%
Gillespie            26     36     42     41     38     43     41     25
DK/NA                27     21     18     19     24     17     21     24
 
 
17. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - health care: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              44%     9%    76%    38%    41%    47%    49%    30%
Gillespie            34     74      9     32     35     32     33     45
DK/NA                22     16     14     29     24     21     18     25
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              55%    43%    40%    42%    37%    42%    39%    53%
Gillespie            20     34     41     40     39     39     39     23
DK/NA                25     23     20     18     24     20     22     23
 
 
18. Regardless of who you may support, who do you think would do a better job handling - immigration: Ralph Northam or Ed Gillespie?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Northam              38%     7%    71%    29%    37%    40%    44%    25%
Gillespie            38     78     13     39     41     36     38     51
DK/NA                23     16     17     32     23     24     18     24
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Northam              46%    34%    39%    36%    33%    35%    34%    47%
Gillespie            30     41     40     44     44     45     45     25
DK/NA                24     25     21     20     23     20     21     27
 
 
19. If a candidate for governor supports President Trump, does that make you: more likely to vote for them, less likely to vote for them, or doesn't it have an impact either way?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
More likely          21%    52%     2%    18%    22%    19%    21%    33%
Less likely          48      7     84     40     42     52     52     34
No impact            31     40     15     41     35     28     27     32
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      -      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
More likely          11%    18%    27%    27%    27%    27%    27%     7%
Less likely          52     48     49     42     41     44     43     60
No impact            38     34     23     30     31     29     30     32
DK/NA                 -      -      1      1      1      -      1      1
 
 
20. Would you describe the state of Virginia's economy these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Excellent             7%     6%     8%     8%     9%     5%    12%     4%
Good                 65     57     72     67     69     62     70     61
Not so good          21     28     18     18     16     26     13     27
Poor                  6      7      2      7      5      6      4      6
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Excellent             9%     7%     5%     8%    10%     6%     8%     6%
Good                 71     65     64     62     68     64     66     63
Not so good          14     23     22     23     16     24     20     23
Poor                  5      4      9      6      5      4      5      7
DK/NA                 1      1      -      1      1      1      1      -
 
 
21. Do you think Virginia's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Better               28%    25%    31%    28%    33%    23%    33%    25%
Worse                10      9      6     12     11      9      7     11
The same             61     64     61     58     55     66     59     60
DK/NA                 2      2      2      1      1      2      1      3
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Better               37%    26%    25%    26%    35%    24%    29%    26%
Worse                 9      9     11      9     11      7      9     10
The same             53     63     63     61     53     66     60     62
DK/NA                 2      1      1      4      1      3      2      2
 
 
22. Would you describe your financial situation these days as excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                                                               WHITE......
                                                               COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Excellent            14%    12%    16%    14%    14%    15%    21%     8%
Good                 58     67     57     56     62     55     66     61
Not so good          20     12     21     22     18     22      9     22
Poor                  5      5      4      6      4      6      3      8
DK/NA                 2      3      2      2      2      2      1      2
 
                     AGE IN YRS..............    WHITE.....           Non-
                     18-34  35-49  50-64  65+    Men    Wom    Wht    Wht
 
Excellent            11%    13%    16%    17%    15%    14%    14%    13%
Good                 56     61     60     59     64     63     63     51
Not so good          26     18     18     17     16     14     15     30
Poor                  6      6      4      5      4      7      5      5
DK/NA                 1      2      1      2      2      2      2      1