July 19, 2016 - New York Is In A Clinton State Of Mind, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Schumer Leads Unknown Gop Challenger More Than 2-1 PDF format Additional Trend Information Driven by a 3 - 1 lead in New York City, Democrat Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump 47 - 35 percent among all New York State voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Both candidates have negative favorability ratings, 41 - 52 percent for Clinton and 32 - 61 percent for Trump, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. Clinton leads among all age groups, especially among voters 18 to 34 years old, who go Democratic 53 - 18 percent. There is a yawning gender gap, with men tipping to Trump 44 - 40 percent, while women back Clinton 54 - 28 percent. New York City voters back Clinton 63 - 20 percent, while upstate voters go to Trump 48 - 36 percent. Suburban voters are divided, with 40 percent for Trump and 39 percent for Clinton. Both candidates suffer from lower levels of same-party support than winning candidates normally receive, as Clinton leads 82 - 10 percent among Democrats, while Trump takes Republicans 76 - 9 percent. Independent voters back Clinton 41 - 35 percent. With third party candidates in the race, Clinton gets 45 percent, with Trump at 33 percent, Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson at 6 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 4 percent. "As Republicans rally in Cleveland and Democrats prepare for their Philadelphia convention, Hillary Clinton seems to have her adopted home state votes safely locked up," said Quinnipiac University Poll Assistant Director Maurice Carroll. "Donald Trump's a native New Yorker. He even sounds like one, compared with Clinton's flat Midwestern accent, but he lags by double digits in the state where they'll both vote," Carroll added. "There's a big gender gap. Women are solidly for the first woman nominee of a major party. Even though she calls Chappaqua home, Clinton trails Trump among men." Donald Trump's selection of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate was a good choice, New York State voters say 43 - 21 percent, but 59 percent of voters don't know enough about Pence to form an opinion of him. "Picking Pence had no noticeable effect on Trump's New York numbers," Carroll said. U.S. Senate Race In New York State's U.S. Senate race, Democratic incumbent Sen. Charles Schumer leads Republican challenger Wendy Long 60 - 28 percent. Schumer is ahead among every gender, age and regional group listed, and among Democrats and independent voters, while Long has a lackluster 62 - 24 percent lead among Republicans. New York State voters approve 62 - 29 percent of the job Schumer is doing and give him a 57 - 25 percent favorability rating. For Long, 74 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion of her. Voters approve 56 - 22 percent of the job Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is doing. President Obama Approval New York State voters approve 56 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, his best score in more than three years. Approval is 70 - 25 percent in New York City and 52 - 46 percent in the suburbs, while upstate voters disapprove 52 - 45 percent. From July 13 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,104 New York State voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. Visit www.quinnipiac.edu/polling or www.facebook.com/quinnipiacpoll Call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 47% 9% 82% 41% 40% 54% 53% 45% 49% 46% Trump 35 76 10 35 44 28 18 40 41 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 2 5 3 4 6 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 1 7 7 4 10 5 3 2 DK/NA 9 7 5 12 6 11 13 7 6 8 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Clinton 36% 63% 39% Trump 48 20 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 3 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 7 4 DK/NA 9 6 13 2. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat, Donald Trump the Republican, Gary Johnson the Libertarian, and Jill Stein the Green party candidate, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Clinton 45% 7% 79% 38% 34% 54% 45% 45% 46% 46% Trump 33 74 9 32 41 27 15 35 39 41 Johnson 6 2 2 9 9 3 12 8 4 1 Stein 4 3 2 6 6 2 6 4 3 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 - 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 2 4 3 4 10 1 1 2 DK/NA 8 9 4 10 7 9 12 5 6 6 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Clinton 35% 60% 35% Trump 45 17 39 Johnson 5 5 8 Stein 3 6 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 3 DK/NA 7 7 12 3. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ More 40% 54% 41% 32% 49% 33% 28% 40% 51% 40% Less 33 28 29 41 28 38 43 30 27 35 About the same 25 18 28 23 21 28 27 29 22 24 DK/NA 1 - 1 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub More 41% 39% 42% Less 35 35 29 About the same 23 25 28 DK/NA 1 2 2 4. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Strongly favorable 23% 53% 7% 22% 29% 18% 9% 24% 27% 28% Smwht favorable 9 17 2 9 10 8 5 12 8 12 Smwht unfavorable 7 5 6 8 10 5 9 5 7 6 Strongly unfavorable 54 19 81 53 44 62 70 52 51 51 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 2 5 4 4 4 6 5 1 REFUSED/DK/NA 3 3 1 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Strongly favorable 33% 11% 28% Smwht favorable 12 6 9 Smwht unfavorable 4 10 7 Strongly unfavorable 47 63 51 Hvn't hrd enough 2 7 2 REFUSED/DK/NA 3 3 3 5. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Strongly favorable 25% 6% 48% 16% 19% 30% 18% 25% 30% 29% Smwht favorable 16 7 23 18 17 16 23 14 14 14 Smwht unfavorable 7 3 5 10 7 7 13 8 5 4 Strongly unfavorable 45 82 16 49 54 38 38 48 46 46 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 5 5 2 5 7 4 3 2 REFUSED/DK/NA 3 1 3 2 2 4 - - 2 5 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Strongly favorable 19% 35% 18% Smwht favorable 13 18 20 Smwht unfavorable 6 8 7 Strongly unfavorable 59 30 49 Hvn't hrd enough 2 6 3 REFUSED/DK/NA 2 3 4 6. Is your opinion of Jill Stein favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Strongly favorable 2% - 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% 3% Smwht favorable 7 2 9 8 8 6 20 6 5 2 Smwht unfavorable 2 3 2 3 4 1 5 1 2 2 Strongly unfavorable 4 4 3 5 4 3 2 7 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 85 90 83 82 82 87 71 86 86 89 REFUSED/DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 1 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Strongly favorable 1% 1% 3% Smwht favorable 5 8 8 Smwht unfavorable 2 3 2 Strongly unfavorable 4 4 3 Hvn't hrd enough 87 82 84 REFUSED/DK/NA - 1 - 7. Is your opinion of Gary Johnson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? COMBINED WITH: (If Favorable/Unfavorable) Do you feel that way strongly or somewhat? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Strongly favorable 3% 1% 2% 4% 4% 2% 7% 1% 2% 1% Smwht favorable 7 7 8 6 9 4 7 9 7 5 Smwht unfavorable 5 5 6 3 5 4 4 4 6 4 Strongly unfavorable 5 7 5 5 5 5 - 5 8 7 Hvn't hrd enough 80 80 79 82 76 84 82 81 76 81 REFUSED/DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 1 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Strongly favorable 2% 2% 6% Smwht favorable 8 7 4 Smwht unfavorable 5 4 5 Strongly unfavorable 6 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 79 81 80 REFUSED/DK/NA 1 1 1 8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Wendy Long the Republican, for whom would you vote? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Schumer 60% 24% 87% 58% 55% 65% 69% 56% 59% 61% Long 28 62 9 28 36 21 15 32 32 33 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 4 2 4 5 3 2 1 DK/NA 8 9 3 9 6 10 11 9 6 5 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Schumer 53% 71% 54% Long 38 17 31 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 5 3 DK/NA 7 7 12 9. Is your opinion of Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 57% 32% 77% 53% 52% 62% 61% 52% 60% 62% Unfavorable 25 51 5 31 31 21 6 31 30 27 Hvn't hrd enough 15 15 16 14 15 16 31 16 8 9 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 3 1 2 2 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Favorable 54% 63% 53% Unfavorable 32 19 26 Hvn't hrd enough 13 18 16 REFUSED 2 1 4 10. Is your opinion of Wendy Long favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 17% 37% 6% 16% 21% 14% 8% 16% 23% 19% Unfavorable 9 3 11 9 7 10 15 6 9 7 Hvn't hrd enough 74 60 82 74 72 76 77 78 66 74 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 - - - 2 1 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Favorable 25% 11% 14% Unfavorable 9 9 6 Hvn't hrd enough 66 78 79 REFUSED - 1 1 12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Approve 62% 33% 82% 64% 58% 66% 72% 55% 61% 63% Disapprove 29 56 12 31 33 26 15 36 34 31 DK/NA 8 11 6 5 9 8 13 9 5 6 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Approve 56% 68% 62% Disapprove 35 24 30 DK/NA 9 8 9 13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Approve 56% 39% 76% 51% 50% 61% 50% 60% 57% 62% Disapprove 22 40 8 24 25 20 18 19 25 24 DK/NA 22 21 16 26 25 19 32 22 17 14 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Approve 57% 56% 55% Disapprove 26 18 22 DK/NA 17 26 23 14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? AGE IN YRS.............. Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Approve 56% 14% 87% 58% 47% 64% 72% 51% 53% 52% Disapprove 40 83 11 40 49 32 25 44 44 45 DK/NA 4 3 3 3 5 3 4 5 3 2 AREA............. UpStat NYC Sub Approve 45% 70% 52% Disapprove 52 25 46 DK/NA 3 5 2 27. Is your opinion of Mike Pence favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (Asked Jul 15-17) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Favorable 18% 35% 5% 20% 22% 14% Unfavorable 23 2 40 19 21 25 Hvn't hrd enough 59 61 55 61 56 61 REFUSED - 1 - - 1 - 28. Do you think Donald Trump's selection of Mike Pence as his vice presidential running mate was a good choice or a bad choice? (Asked Jul 15-17) Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Good 43% 60% 32% 45% 49% 38% Bad 21 3 34 22 18 24 DK/NA 36 37 35 32 33 38 Sample and Methodology detail
